MIAMI -- Milton's top winds are down to 130 mph and the storm is moving NE at 16 mph, centered about 150 miles SW of Tampa.

Dangers include storm surge, high winds, tornadoes and as much as a foot of rain. Outer bands are reaching the coastline from Pinellas to Charlotte counties.

Here's the latest from the NHC:

Hurricane Milton Intermediate Advisory Number 18A

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142024

200 PM EDT Wed Oct 09 2024

...MILTON GROWING IN SIZE AS IT MOVES CLOSER TO THE WEST COAST OF

FLORIDA...

...LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE, DAMAGING WINDS, AND FLOODING RAINS

EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA...

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION

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LOCATION...26.3N 84.0W

ABOUT 130 MI...210 KM W OF FT. MYERS FLORIDA

ABOUT 150 MI...240 KM SW OF TAMPA FLORIDA

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...944 MB...27.88 INCHES

WATCHES AND WARNINGS

--------------------

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The Storm Surge Watch has been discontinued north of Altamaha

Sound Georgia to Edisto Beach South Carolina.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for...

* Florida west coast from Flamingo northward to Yankeetown,

including Charlotte Harbor and Tampa Bay

* Sebastian Inlet Florida to Altamaha Sound Georgia, including the

St. Johns River

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for...

* Florida west coast from Bonita Beach northward to Suwannee River,

including Tampa Bay

* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line northward

to Ponte Vedra Beach

A Hurricane Watch is in effect for...

* Dry Tortugas

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida west coast from Chokoloskee to south of Bonita Beach

* Florida east coast north of Ponte Vedra Beach to the mouth of the

St. Marys River

* Florida east coast from the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to the

Palm Beach/Martin County Line

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...

* Florida Keys, including Dry Tortugas and Florida Bay

* Lake Okeechobee

* Florida west coast from Flamingo to south of Bonita Beach

* Florida west coast from north of Suwanee River to Indian Pass

* Florida east coast south of the St. Lucie/Martin County Line to

Flamingo

* North of Ponte Vedra Beach Florida to the Savannah River

* Extreme northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, the

Abacos, and Bimini

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...

* North of the Savannah River to South Santee River South

Carolina

A Storm Surge Warning means there is a danger of life-threatening

inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline,

during the next 36 hours in the indicated locations. For a

depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather

Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons

located within these areas should take all necessary actions to

protect life and property from rising water and the potential for

other dangerous conditions. Promptly follow evacuation and other

instructions from local officials.

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected

somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued

36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of

tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside

preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life

and property should be rushed to completion.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are

expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.

A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible

within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours

before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force

winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or

dangerous.

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are

possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

For storm information specific to your area in the United

States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please

monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service

forecast office. For storm information specific to your area

outside of the United States, please monitor products issued by

your national meteorological service.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

----------------------

At 200 PM EDT (1800 UTC), the center of Hurricane Milton was located

near latitude 26.3 North, longitude 84.0 West. Milton is moving

toward the north-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the

northeast with a decrease in forward speed is expected this evening

and tonight. A turn toward the east-northeast and east is expected

on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Milton

will make landfall along the west-central coast of Florida tonight,

cross the Florida peninsula overnight and early Thursday, and move

off the east coast of Florida over the western Atlantic Ocean on

Thursday.

Maximum sustained winds are near 130 mph (215 km/h) with higher

gusts. Milton is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson

Hurricane Wind Scale. Milton is expected to remain an extremely

dangerous major hurricane when it reaches the west-central coast of

Florida tonight, and remain at hurricane strength while it moves

across the Florida peninsula through Thursday. Gradual weakening is

forecast while Milton moves eastward over the western Atlantic, and

it is likely to become an extratropical storm by early Friday.

Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 35 miles (55 km) from the

center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 250 miles

(280 km), especially to the north. A NOAA saildrone (SD-1083)

located about 50 miles east of the center recently reported a

sustained wind of 52 mph (84 km/h) and a wind gust of 70 mph (112

km/h).

The minimum central pressure based on Air Force Reserve Hurricane

Hunter data is 944 mb (27.88 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND

----------------------

Key Messages for Milton can be found in the Tropical Cyclone

Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT4 and WMO header WTNT44 KNHC

and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT4.shtml

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the

tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by

rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could

reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated

areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide...

Anna Maria Island, FL to Boca Grande, FL...9-13 ft

Anclote River, FL to Anna Maria Island, FL...8-12 ft

Tampa Bay...8-12 ft

Boca Grande, FL to Bonita Beach, FL...8-12 ft

Charlotte Harbor...8-12 ft

Bonita Beach, FL to Chokoloskee, FL...5-8 ft

Aripeka, FL to Anclote River, FL...3-5 ft

Chokoloskee, FL to Flamingo, FL...3-5 ft

Sebastian Inlet, FL to Altamaha Sound, GA...3-5 ft

Yankeetown, FL to Aripeka, FL...2-4 ft

Dry Tortugas...2-4 ft

St. Johns River...2-4 ft

The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to

the south of the landfall location, where the surge will be

accompanied by large and dangerous waves. Surge-related flooding

depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle,

and can vary greatly over short distances. For information

specific to your area, please see products issued by your local

National Weather Service forecast office.

For a complete depiction of areas at risk of storm surge

inundation, please see the National Weather Service Peak Storm

Surge Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?peakSurge.

RAINFALL: Rainfall amounts of 6 to 12 inches, with localized totals

up to 18 inches, are expected across central to northern portions of

the Florida Peninsula through Thursday. This rainfall brings the

risk of catastrophic and life-threatening flash and urban flooding,

along with moderate to major river flooding.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with

Hurricane Milton, please see the National Weather Service Storm

Total Rainfall Graphic, available at

hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?rainqpf and the Flash Flood Risk

graphic at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at4.shtml?ero.

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in the hurricane warning

area across Florida beginning this evening through Thursday morning

and are possible in the hurricane watch area on Thursday. Tropical

storm conditions are expected to begin in the warning area on the

west coast of Florida in a few hours, spreading across the peninsula

and reaching the east coast tonight. Tropical storm conditions are

expected to begin in the warning area along the Georgia coast on

Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are expected in portions of the

northwestern Bahamas on Thursday.

Tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area

on the South Carolina coast on Thursday.

TORNADOES: Several tornadoes are likely today and tonight across

parts of central and southern Florida.

SURF: Swells generated by Milton are expected to continue to affect

much of the Gulf Coast and will increase along the southeastern U.S.

coast during the next day or two. These swells are likely to cause

life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult

products from your local weather office.

NEXT ADVISORY

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Next complete advisory at 500 PM EDT.

Photo: NHC

Mike Bianchi's Open Mike

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