Finals roll on tonight – GS up 3-2. If I told you Steph wouldn’t hit a 3 and golden state would be outscored by 11 in the 3rd quarter…how confident would you have been in a Celtics pick Monday night? I’ll answer for you, VERY!
I am torn with where to go tonight, a large part of me just wants to stay away…but, come on, how many of these games do we have left?
Let’s decipher this. I have a list of reasons to bet Boston (-3.5) and a list of reasons to bet GS.
Reasons to bet GS:
·The warriors just beat the Celtics without getting a single 3 from steph, without getting a single 3 from 4 of their 5 starters, and shooting 22% from deep as a team. That’s goes to correct itself in game 6.
·They’ve shown they can win in a variety of ways – 3s, 2s, defense…and they still haven’t had a major offensive output. Their highest scoring game was game 1, 108 in a loss…
·GS hasn’t been great in close out games, but this is also the only close out game they’ve had that wins them the title – different level of motivation.
·Boston looks gassed.
·Steve Kerr seems to have figured out all of Boston’s many adjustments to this series…I think Boston might be out of chess moves.
·Experience hasn’t mattered in this series, but it seems to be a factor now.
Reasons to bet Boston:
·The Celtics turned the ball over 18 times, they are not likely to do that again, and if they don’t turn the ball over – I actually still think they’re the better team overall.
·Celtics after a loss are 12-2 ATS after a loss (since Jan 29)
·All Celtics wins after losses in the playoffs (except for 1) have been by 8 points or more
·Warriors after a playoff win, 4-7 ATS. Warriors after a win on the road, 1-5 ATS in the playoffs.
·The Warriors have had 3 opportunities to finish a series on the road in this post season and they’re 0-3 straight up in those games.