Season long, its been profitable. I’ve gone 68-61 ATS over the course of the season. Not bad, this win is just gravy at this point. But I figured, one game left, I can’t rattle through 6 picks…how am I going to make this a full segment? Plus, I’ve made it pretty obvious throughout the week with who I’m going with. I’ve been on the Bengals since the line opened up 2 weeks ago. So, I’ve decided to tell you why I’m going with Cincinnati by speaking my kinda language. A top 5!
1.Only 6 times in the 55 Super Bowls that have been played has a favorite won and NOT covered the spread. That means, historically, if you bet on the dog, you should just bet them to win straight up. Lovely trend, also insanely unsustainable. This would be a great time to fade a record that is truly unrealistic, especially when you consider the level of parity in today’s game.
2.Since 2010, we’ve only witnessed 6 Super Bowls that haven’t featured Tom Brady. Of course, this now being the 7th. In those 6 games, the underdog has won outright 4 times. The Bengals have won straight up as underdogs in each of their last 2 playoff games, so we know they can do it.
3.The last time a Super Bowl participant entered the season with odds of 200-1 to win it all, it was in 1999 and it was the St. Louis Rams. The Bengals are charmed, momentum is on their side, and they have the better QB.
4.We are sleeping on this defense. They held Derek Carr and the Raiders to 19 points in round 1, stifled the Titans (with Derrick Henry back) in round 2, and held the potent Chiefs offense to 3 2nd half points in the AFC title game. They’ve got veteran leaders like Trey Hendrickson and Vonn Bell, young guys like Logan Wilson and Jessie Bates…they have played so well over the last couple weeks, I think they’re going to be a bigger factor than many are giving them credit for.
5.Since 2019, Joe Burrow is undefeated in elimination games. He’s defeated Jalen Hurts (OU), Trevor Lawrence (Clemson), Derek Carr, Ryan Tannehill, and Patrick Mahomes. Why would I start betting against him now?
And I get 4.5?! Lock it up.
Thanks for playing this season, good luck on Sunday.