Stone-Cold Locks of the Week. Pretty easy to figure out which games I wanted to choose from, like shooting fish in a barrell, some good games out there in the wild-card round – found some #’s I’m in love with and now it is time to add to what has been a pretty profitable season. 60-57 overall. Highs and lows for sure. Let's go!
Raiders @ Bengals (-5.5)- I am all over the Bengals here, totally buying in to the narrative – or really the reality – that the Raiders are cooked. They just wrapped up a really brutal close to the season, OT against a division rival, a team that they should’ve put away when they had a 15 point lead late, but couldn’t. Now, they travel to Cincinnati on a short week and get the first game of the weekend, going up against a squad that is well rested and playing at their absolute best. All over Cincy, lock it up.
Pats (+4.5) @ Bills- Another lay-up for me, I’ve been on the Pats all year, no reason to get off the trolly now. I get the better coach, the better defense, the better run game, and a mistake-free QB in frigid Buffalo where its like 4 degrees…Josh Allen’s not going 2-1 against Bill this year. Give me the Pats +4.5. Lock it up.
Eagles @ Bucs (-8.5)- Even though I’ve been very vocal about the fact that Bucs fans are way too cocky heading into this matchup and the Eagles are not to be slept on…I’m still on the Bucs here. I can’t see a scenario where Philly hangs with Tampa for 4 quarters. The Eagles rank 25th against the pass, they have ZERO impressive wins on their schedule, they went up against 6 playoff teams this regular season- lost all of them. Backing Brady in the playoffs just feels right. The number doesn’t scare me, give me the Bucs, lock it up!
49ers (+3) @ Cowboys- Tough break for Dallas. This San Fran team is the prototypical ‘hot at the right time’ team. I could see a scenario where this team goes to the Super Bowl. They have all the pieces. They can score, they can run, they can rush the passer, and they’ve done it before. SF was in the SB 2 years ago. Also, fun stat- Dallas ranks 17th this year against TE’s. George Kittle might be the best in the league right now.Niners cover, Niners win. Lock it up.
Steelers @ Chiefs (-12.5)- I have never seen a QB less interested in making it to the playoffs than Big Ben, the look on his face when they beat the Ravens was that of a man that wants a nap and a warm bath, not a playoff game in Kansas City. The Chiefs are just better, at everything. There’s a reason the Chiefs beat the Steelers by 26 the last time they played, this is a bad matchup for Pittsburgh. KC didn’t even have Kelce last time they met and Tyreek Hill only had 2 catches. They still won 36-10. I think this game plays out much of the same. Chiefs -12.5, lock it up.
Cardinals (+4) @ Rams- This is the game I struggled with the most, I am such a believer in the Rams, that roster, coaching…all that. But, I can’t trust them enough to say they should be 4 point favorites in this game. I feel like the 4 is value with Arizona because so many people have sold their stock on this team. Now, I like this # wayyy better if Conner and Hopkins play, we don’t know right now, but I’ll take it either way. 1 pick 6 from Stafford and this is a cover, guaranteed. Arizona’s defense has been better than LA’s star studded D. AZ outgained the Rams by 60 the first time they played and 100 the 2nd time. Wild-card underdogs by a TD or less, 28-14-1 ATS. The Cardinals, 8-1 on the road ATS this year, all signs point to an AZ cover. Lock it up.