Time for my stone-cold locks of the week – you’ve all been waiting for it – and here we go. Last week, not my week. 1-5 ATS. Brought my overall record to a clean .500 56-56 on the season…really want to get back up to a 55 or 60% win rate. This is a big week, let’s make some $$$.
Phins (+6) vs Pats- This is the easiest call of the week so I’ll just get this one out of the way now. The Patriots value is over-inflated here, they are not 6 points better than Miami. But, you get value on the # here because Miami just got blown out by Tennessee in the rain, everyone’s down on Tua again, and the Pats beat the Jags by 40…who cares. Miami and NE are going to play a close game and it wouldn’t surprise me one bit if Miami won this game outright. Give me Miami +6, lock it up.
Falcons (+3.5) vs Saints- I have been betting against this Saints team most of the year and it typically pays off. I’m not a Taysom Hill believer, great for fantasy, terrible in real life. The Falcons seem like a dumpster fire but they’re actually not. They’re eliminated from the playoffs but they won 7 games this year, one of them by the way was against the Saints – in New Orleans. I think Atlanta spoils the party for the Saints as they try and make their way into the playoffs, not their year, I’ll take the Dirty Birds. Lock it up! (Pitts may be out, something to monitor)
Steelers (+5) @ Baltimore- It came out today that Tyler Huntley would be starting in place of Lamar Jackson, I haven’t seen any line movement, so I’ll take the discount with the #. I know a lot of people think the Steelers are emotionally zapped after Monday night’s Big Ben lovefest, but this is his last game as a pro, so I think they’ll have a little left in the tank. Plus, this stat that I used earlier in the season to grab a win, is just too unbelievable to pass up: since 2005, when either team in this rivalry is favored by more than a field goal, the underdog is 17-2 ATS!(that stat courtesy of ActionNetwork.com) ***EDIT: SPREAD HAS CHANGED TO STEELERS +3.5...STILL ON IT.
Raiders (+3) vs Chargers- Another home underdog?! Week 18 is the gift that keeps on giving. Terrific prime-time matchup, both teams 9-7, both teams need a win to get in, in fact- with a tie they both get in…another reason to like the underdog in this game. But I’m just buying back into the Raiders here, this team is scrappy, and in a must-win situation, backs against the wall, with their home fans behind them…I just think they get it done. This Chargers team is a year away from being a serious problem in the AFC, but they’re not there yet. I’ll take the Raiders +3, lock it up.
CFB Playoff: Georgia (-2.5) vs Bama- I am fully aware of the risk I am taking here. Where if I’m wrong, I have to live with the fact that I bet against Nick Saban in a big game situation, but I just can’t get behind this Alabama team twice vs what I perceive to be the most loaded roster in all of CFB. I backed Bama in the SEC Title game, it would be really easy to just close my eyes and take them again here, but I’m not feeling it. Georgia was due for a letdown, now they come in motivated as ever, feeling themselves after that big win against Michigan. Bama’s without their top WR. Give me Georgia -2.5. Lock it up!