Let’s end the year the way we started it, making some $$ off these locks! This year I’ve delivered more picks than EVER before, this is my 3rd year of ‘Locks-giving’ and I’m on track for the best year yet…and isn’t that the goal, just be better than you were last year. Ultimately, that’s what all New Years Resolutions are about. But enough of the mush, let’s get to the picks!
As we experienced last week, lines can change very quickly due to COVID outbreaks, but my locks are officially “locked in” (pardon the pun) the moment I say them out loud, whether that works in my favor or against it. 106 picks made this year and I’m 55-51 on the season – let’s keep it rolling!
Michigan (+7.5) vs Georgia- Admittedly, I’m on the wrong side of this when it comes to public percentages, this is one of those moments where I am going against my usual trends. My threshold is 70%, I don’t follow public #’s when they reach the 70% mark, but I am with the people here. Michigan is red-hot right now, they just keep getting better each week, then can run, they can defend, and God forbid Stetson Bennett has to drop back and pass in this game, the Bulldogs are screwed. 7.5 is just too big a number for how strong Michigan is at this point, it’s their year, back the Wolverines – Lock it up.
Cincinnati (+13.5) vs Alabama- Man, this is a tough pick to make. But I think once you peel back preconceived notions and just look @ the teams on the field, it’s a pretty easy call. Alabama is WAYYY overvalued here after what they did to Georgia. This lines probably 7 or 8 in the favor of Bama if their last game wasn’t a beat down of the #1 team in the country…but we have to remember, Saban owns Kirby Smart, its just one of those things. Again, I’ll go back to preconceived notions, the thought is, Bama’s been here, Bama knows the pressure and they’ll respond with a big win. Problem is, this really isn’t a good matchup for them. Cincy is #2 in the nation in coverage success, their secondary is amazing, and Bama is without their best WR in John Metchie. Desmond Ridder is a seasoned pro at this point, he won’t be phased, and they can run too if they need to establish tone, or hold onto an early lead. I’d be surprised if Cincy wins, but I love them to cover. Cincy +13.5, lock it up.
Kentucky (-3) vs Iowa- This game will be played on New Year's Day right here in Orlando…time to restore my SEC bias with this pick. Kentucky has the edge here, Iowa got off to a hot start at the beginning of the season 6-0, they were one of the top teams in the country, but they were scoring 30% of their points off turnovers, a mark that proved to be unsustainable. Truth is, their offense is inept, they barely squeaked by their last 4 wins of the season (bad Big 10 teams) and then got their doors blown off vs Michigan. Kentucky’s Will Levis will put up enough points in this one. Kentucky 8-4 ATS this year. Lock em up.
Phins (+3.5) @ Titans- You would think this would be the perfect time for the bubble to burst, but not-so-fast my friends. The Titans are a really good team, they’ve got extended rest, they should be able to win this game, but these feel like 2 teams trending in different directions. The Phins are 7-0 in their last 7 and 6-1 ATS in that span. Tannehill has 6 fumbles and 6 picks over the last 6 games, that’s not going to cut it against this feisty dolphins defense. Plus, the Titans will be down some key o-lineman due to COVID, Bud Durpee, and Julio Jones. I’ll take the fish, with the hook! Lock it up.
Chiefs (-5.5) @ Bengals- Joe Burrow is coming off of easily his best game as a pro, not easy to fade him here, but we do need to remind ourselves that he did so against some high-school players masquerading as Ravens defenders. That team was as beat up as we’ve ever seen an NFL secondary. Meanwhile, this bet is much more about the Chiefs, they are smoking hot right now…their offense has come alive, they’re getting Kelce back from COVID-IR, and their defense has been light out. The Chiefs have allowed only 14.5 points per game over the last 10 and more than 17 points only twice. The Chiefs have won 8-straight and covered the spread in 6-straight, I like them to keep it rolling. Chiefs -5.5, lock it up!
Vikings (+6.5) @ Packers- Sunday night football. Divisional rivals. The Packers have been perfect at home, there’s a reason they’re favored by almost a TD here…plus, Kirk Cousins in prime-time, yuck. But, I can’t stay away, this is value on top of value with Minnesota. The Packers have won only four of the past 12 meetings against Minnesota and just one of their last four at home. Plus, this is the 2nd meeting this season between these two teams, and guess who won the first one- the Vikings. And how about this, Kirk Cousins might be turning things around on prime-time, he’s 4-1 ATS in his last 5 night games. I like this to be a close game, so give me the Vikings…SKOL. Lock it up.