How about a SUPER-LOCK SPECIAL! I’ve got 8 games to pick against the spread here, things could go really well for me here or they could go south quick, but I have been steadfast in saying – I will not be beholden to a #, if I like 3 games, I’ll pick 3, if I like 4 I’ll pick 4…well this week, I’ve got 8 I can’t stay away from, so hopefully the hot streak picks back up…15-3 over a 3 week span, followed up by a dud last week, 1-5 ATS. I handed out some Tuesday specials earlier this week, Seattle +7.5, flop. Eagles -6.5, cover. This brings my season long record to 50-48. Let’s make some picks!
Cardinals (-1) vs Colts- Saturday night special, what a grade-A spot to take the Cardinals. They just lost to the Lions, you don’t think they’re going to come out with their ass on fire here? The Colts are essentially looked @ as the favorite in this game, on the road only a 1-point dog, home field is supposed to get you 3 in the NFL. Total disrespect for the better overall team in AZ. Colts way overvalued here, I’ll take the Cardinals -1, lock it up.
Pats (-2.5) vs Buffalo- These two met just 2 weeks ago in mega-windy Buffalo, NE got the win 14-10, hard to take too much out of that game given the weather but I do feel like I can take this – BILL BELICHICK OWNS JOSH ALLEN. The Pats are the only team in the AFC East Josh Allen doesn’t hold a winning record against. 2-4 lifetime. On the road, Pats coming off a loss, where I thought they actually looked really good in the 2nd half – just dug too big a hole to climb out of. I’ve bought into the Pats for the past month, this is a fair #, I’ll take ‘em again. Pats -2.5, lock it up.
Rams (-2.5) @ Vikings- I’ve spent the last few minutes talking to you about home teams I love, how about one I am happy to fade? Minnesota. The Vikings are 4-2 at home and the dome in Minneapolis is not an easy place to play, but it is if you’re the Rams. What a perfect setting for the best team in football right now, dome-fast track-against a team that allows points and yards by the case load. Rams -2.5 feels like candy from a baby, don’t overthink this one. Back the Rams, lock it up!
Jets (Pick ‘em) vs Jags- Man, there are few things worse than backing the Jets, but backing the Jags is one of them, so that kind of sets this pick in stone. Now, in order to follow me on this one, you’re going to have to be willing to roll around in the mud a bit, but I think it’ll be worth it. This is easily the worst game on the schedule in the NFL season, but, it pays the same as the others if we get it right. I’m not gonna bother throwing stats or #’s at you – just look @ these teams, one has life and the other is lifeless. The Jags find a way to get worse each week and the Jets…have some redeeming qualities. I’ll take the Jets in the NFL version of an ugly Christmas sweater game. Lock it up.
Chiefs (-7.5) vs Steelers- This game of course is clouded by COVID, the Chiefs are awaiting word on Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and others. But I’m not sure how much it actually matters in the grand scheme of things. This is a perfect spot to fade the steelers, coming off a big win at home, must-win spot, and it took multiple turnovers to go their way to make it happen. The Chiefs might not end up being full strength offensively, but they’ve been lights out on defense against QB’s not named Justin Herbert. Big Ben can’t keep pace with Mahomes @ Arrowhead – even without Kelce and Hill.Matchup to watch for, Melvin Ingram revenge spot, the Steelers shipped him off to KC and he’s been great for them. Give me the Chiefs -7.5, lock it up.
WFT (+11) @ Cowboys- Dallas is out of sorts, don’t let a win over Mike Glennon fool you. 11 points is too much for a team that’s simply out of sync right now. Washington plays hard, divisional rivalry, I like them to keep it close. WFT +11, lock it up!
Phins (+3) @ Saints (MNF)- Now, the line may change on this one with the news that Taysom Hill could miss the game and Ian Book would sub in @ QB, but I haven’t seen it move yet…I mean, are you kidding me?! Best line of the weekend in the NFL. Nearly 70% of bets are being placed on the Saints right now and why? We’re talking about a team that scored 9 points last week. The Saints are awful, they just play Brady really well. The Phins are hot, 6 game win streak, perfect matchup for Tua, he’ll struggle in games where he’s got to score 30+ to win, but this isn’t one of them. I like the Phins to win, love them to cover. Lock it up!
UCF (+7) vs Florida TONIGHT- I’ve been waiting all day to make this pick. Give me the Knights. +7 is a joke. You ever heard of momentum? Yeah, the Gators have none of it. Nothing says limping to the finish line quite like losing 5 of your last 8 games and firing 50% of your coaching staff. This is a mash unit for the Gators out there and sure they still have talent, I certainly don’t expect UCF to blow Florida out, but I do expect a close game. UCF is going to try and run the football a ton with that 3 headed monster of Bowser, Richards, and Richardson. Florida is going to have trouble passing with no elite wide receivers and a UCF secondary that ranks 11th in yards allowed. UCF +7, all day every day. Lock it up.