Time for my STONE-COLD LOCKS of the Week. A bounce back performance this past weekend 3-2 against the spread, now 33-39 on the season. I have responded from my abysmal 1-6 week from 2 weeks ago, I’m feeling good, clear headed and fresh. Do not let this sportsbook ruling in the Florida courts deter you from looking @ these lines and hypothetically placing wagers. We are bandits of the law…throw away the keys, let’s lock ‘em up!
FSU (+3) @ Florida- Are you kidding me? Is this a joke? Did a stand up comedian make this line? This isn’t a betting line, it’s a punch line. FSU is playing MUCH better football right now, there’s a reason Dan Mullen got fired, its because his team sucks. FSU is getting better each week, they play hard for Mike Norvell, and Gator fans have checked out on the season so I’m not too concerned about the perceived home-field advantage. Take the Noles plus the 3, lock it up.
Ole Miss (+1) @ Miss. State- Love this game, first of all, Egg Bowl- great name. 2nd, give me Matt Corral 8 days of the week against this Mississippi State defense. The Bulldogs rank 93rd in CFB in pass rush success rate, not gonna cut it against a Heisman favorite like Matt Corrall. Now, Ole Miss’s defense is nothing to write home about, but if this game turns into a shootout in Starkville, MS…put my money on Matt Corral and an Ole Miss team averaging 36ppg this season. Ole Miss with the W. Lock it up.
Michigan (+8) hosting Ohio State- Game of the weekend, maybe even Game of the Year status right here. Tough call to make, but 8 is simply too much in this game. I understand what Ohio State has looked like as of late and the beat downs they’ve been putting on their opponents, I also understand that Jim Harbaugh is allergic to beating the Buckeyes…but I don’t need a win, I just need a cover, and Michigan can do it. They have the best pass rusher in the nation in Aiden Hutchinson and rank #1 in the nation in generating a pass rush without having to blitz. That means they can put enough guys in coverage to slow down OSU’s amazing receiving unit. I like OSU to win, but I love Michigan to cover. Lock it up.
Dolphins (+2) hosting the Panthers- This is my 49ers/Vikings replacement after Raheem Palmer talked me out of 49ers -3. But I don’t know why the Phins are underdogs here, I know Cam is back and people are all excited but we do realize they lost upon his return, right? People are acting like he completed this storybook return…they fell short, and they’re not very good. Meanwhile, the Phins have turned things around. 3 wins in a row and they haven’t allowed a team to score more than 17 points over the last 3 weeks as well. This # purely reflects a false confidence in Cam Newton. He’s decent, but he’s a shell of his former self. Give me the Phins +2, lock it up.
Bills (-5) @ Saints- Figure I ought to give a Thanksgiving special and given the fact that the first two games are hot garbage, let’s go with the night game. While most of you will be comatose after a day of eating a family small talk, the Bills will be rolling into Bourbon Street on a mission. Here’s the deal, as long as the Saints keep trotting Trevor Simien out there, I’m going to keep betting against them, he’s awful, and I actually like this matchup for the Bills. The Bills are a speed team on a fast track and what the Saints to well (stop the run) the Bills don’t do at all, so there’s no mismatch there. I’ll take the Bills in a smash spot -5 points. Lock it up.
LATE-ADD: BEARS -3 @ DETROIT ON THANKSGIVING DAY!
I could’ve kept going but I’ll stop there. @BrandonKravitz on Twitter if you want another helping come Sunday. Happy Thanksgiving.