Divisional Round Locks Delivered by Brandon Kravitz

Now things are getting serious folks. No more messing around, the Divisional Round is here.

Things were a bit too even for me last week. Went 3-3 after picking all 6 games like a true degenerate. This week, I told myself I was going to be more judicious with my picks. Really have to feel it in my heart! And well, I have 4 picks on 4 games, so I guess I just am who I am.

As always, these #’s lock for me at noon on Friday on the Hard Rock Sportsbook app. Numbers may change if you get to this later on. Season record: 57-54-4.

Texans +9.5 @ Ravens- I’ve been saying it all week, I don’t get it. The Texans were in Baltimore to open the season, first game of CJ Stroud’s career, zero expectations for this Houston team. You know what the line was in that game? 9.5. Now, we have CJ Stroud playing like one of the best QB’s in the NFL, a defense that has rounded into form, and a head coach in Demeco Ryans who has his team ready to play every single week. And the line hasn’t budged? Completely disagree with that assessment from the books. Lamar Jackson still has demons to overcome in the playoffs and I’ll need to see him get past that before I stop fading him in spots like this. Give me the Texans +9.5, lock it up!

49ers -5.5 (1st half spread) vs Packers- Let’s get in and get out with this one. I do believe in what we’re seeing with Jordan Love, and its possible that with some late 2nd half heroics, he could pull his team back into this game. BUT. I don’t think they stand a chance out of the gates. This is not the Dallas Cowboys, the 49ers are going to be prepped and ready to go. I’m betting on Kyle Shanahan’s ability to script a 1st half, Brock Purdy’s ability to deliver on that script, and then I want out. This first half should work like a symphony, with Shanahan as the maestro. Beyond that, when things go off-script, I’m not as interested. Also, for what its worth…the 49ers were the 3rd best scoring offense in 1st halves this season and #5 in scoring defense in 1st halves this season. Give me SF to get out to a comfortable lead early in this one, Niners -5.5 before halftime, lock it up!

Chris Godwin over 63.5 receiving yards- I think the Bucs can win this game, I’ll probably end up sprinkling their moneyline, I’ll definitely end up on the 6.5 before we get to kickoff. But my heaviest investment is actually going to be in the prop world. This feels like a Chris Godwin game. Not only are we on a fast track in Detroit, despite what some reporters think, but we’re also looking at a Lions defense that gave up the 4th most passing yards on the season. I think Mike Evans will have his hands full with Brian Branch, who has played really well this year, but Chris Godwin will draw Cam Sutton – who ranks in the 100’s according to PFF grades among all DB’s. Godwin didn’t hit this mark in their last game, so you’re getting a decent bargain on the yardage amount. Now is the time to pounce! Godwin over 63.5 receiving yards, lock it up!

Bills -3 vs Chiefs- Scary, scary stuff. I hate betting against Mahomes in big game situations like this. BUT, I think it’s the right side, and here’s why…I’m not betting against Mahomes. I’m betting against the other 21 players taking the field on Sunday. The Chiefs defense has been great, but Josh Allen is virtually unstoppable right now, and I don’t think they’ll have an answer for it. They’ve won 6 games in a row, in those games, Josh Allen has a total of 15 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions. This has been a wildly successful and efficient version of Josh Allen. And then there’s the matchup, I think because Allen lost that super memorable Divisional Round game to Mahomes in 2021…the OT classic…people just think Mahomes owns Allen, not true. The Bills have actually won the last 2 meetings between these 2 teams. They won by 3 and by 4…and both of those games were in KC. This is Mahomes first road playoff game, his receivers stink, I think the Bills smash here. Buffalo -3. Lock it up!

Buffalo Bills v Kansas City Chiefs

Photo: Jamie Squire / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images

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