It was a topsy turvy year. A little slow out of the gates but by week 2/week 3, I was all systems go, red-hot in the middle portions of the college and NFL seasons. My record was on track to do something really special…and then, December came, and I hit the skids. I don’t know if I lost my fastball or if it was the distraction of the holidays, but I slipped. Still, in a good spot heading into Super Bowl Sunday. Overall record: 62-51-3. Let’s get these Locks.
Eagles (-1.5)- What’s not to like? They have advantages all over the field. Better o-line, better run game, better pass rush, better secondary, better wide receivers. The only things Kansas City has that Philly doesn’t is Mahomes, Kelce, and Andy Reid. I take nothing away from those guys, but I just don’t think its enough when you consider what they’re up against. Also, some historical trends are really tilting the way of Philly as well. In the 56 previous Super Bowls, 3x has an NFL MVP faced off with an NFL MVP runner-up, those MVP’s are 0-3 in the Super Bowl.
How about this? This was the 18th time in Super Bowl history that the opening line moved more than a point and a half throughout the week. The Chiefs opened as 2 point favorites and the line quickly moved to Eagles -2 (now -1.5) after money poured in on Philly. As I mentioned, 18th time that’s happened…in those instances, the side the line moves towards in 14-4 ATS. Translation: people who bet Philly early, knew exactly what they were doing.
The Chiefs are in a unique spot in this game. They’re not great against the spread. 6-11 during the regular season against the number. Only 3 other teams have gone into a Super Bowl with an ATS record south of 40% - they all lost the game outright.
Eagles are loaded. Simply too much for this Chiefs squad over 4 full quarters. Give me the Eagles -1.5, lock it up!
Eagles 1st half -0.5- If you like Philly to win the game, then you have to like Philly to win the 1st half. This is what they do. They build leads and then they sit on it or build on it with their ability to control clock and run the ball. Philly was by far the #1 team in the league in 1st halves this season. 18ppg, the next closest, ironically enough, was KC @ 15ppg. Against the spread marks are positive as well. If you bet the Eagles to win the 1st half all year, in every game, including playoffs, you would’ve won 73% of your bets. Eagles 1st half W, lock it up!
Over 50.5 points- Super Bowl’s are typically played much more close and tightly wound than other games and for good reason, it’s the biggest game any of these guys will play and no one wants to screw anything up. For that reason, and others, the last 4 Super Bowls have gone under the total. I think people will look at this trend and think they’re smart in going under, I’m just not sure that’s the case. Both of these teams are good enough at what they do offensively, I don’t see how they don’t easily score into the 20’s. In fact, if the game follows the perfect script I’ve laid out…it’ll be a big Eagles lead and Mahomes chasing points for 3 quarters. Also, those last 4 Super Bowls all had something that this one doesn’t, an elite defense. These teams are good defensively but I wouldn’t call them elite. I like this game to go OVER the 50.5, lock it up!