Wild-Card Weekend was dead even. 2-2 after locking up 4 picks. If I can just go 3-1 this weekend, I will be on cloud nine. It’s been a while since I’ve produced a winning week, but still, even with the lack of movement, the overall record this season is still fantastic. Sitting now @ 60-47-3. Ready to make some cheddar on these Divisional Round matchups! Let’s go.
No teasers, no totals, I’m going back to what I do best. Picking sides, against the spread. All 4 games. Dumping my heart and soul into these picks.
Giants (+7.5) @ Eagles- This is a case of backing a hot team that’s well coached, going up against an opponent that they know very very well. The Giants are a cover machine this year too. The G-Men are 13-4 ATS this season and the trends for betting against #1 seeds in the divisional round are pretty hard to pass up too. Last 39 divisional round games with a 1-seed off a bye…those teams are 13-25-1 ATS. It has been overwhelmingly profitable over the years backing a team like the Giants in this position and that’s exactly what I’m going to do. I’d even sprinkle a little on that moneyline. Giants +7.5, lock it up!
49ers (-3.5) vs Cowboys- The 49ers at this point are my pick to win the Super Bowl, so I’m not going to let a dominant performance from Dallas against a beat up and listless Bucs team scare me off. Since week 7, the 49ers have been a wrecking ball. 11-1 since week 7. Scoring 30.8ppg. With a +13.2 point differential. That’s good enough for #1 in the league in that span. This is the best team in the league and I think we’re still getting a Brock Purdy discount on the Niners. If Brock were a 1st round pick or a high-priced free-agent doing what he’s doing, what would this # be? Before the Bucs and Cowboys played, I said the Niners should be 6 point favorites against whoever wins this game, then the Cowboys played great, and the number came out at 3.5. Couldn’t bet it fast enough. Niners -3.5, lock it up!
Bills (-5) vs Bengals- I struggled with this pick. Went back and forth all week, but the thing I couldn’t get past was that Bengals offensive line. I know Burrow dealt with a bad line last year and still miraculously made it to the Super Bowl, but there’s a difference between bad starters…and just straight back ups. The Bengals are without 3 key offensive linemen in this game, and I went back and watched the Bengals after Alex Cappa left the game vs Baltimore, they couldn’t pass block anymore. If Buffalo is able to create pressure, I just don’t see how Cincy keeps up. Nevermind the fact that you have the Damar Hamlin emotional factor still playing a role for Buffalo. I think the Bills played with their food a little bit vs Miami. That won’t happen this week. Taking the Bills -5. Lock it up.
Jags (+9) @ Chiefs- This one’s tough too. Betting against Mahomes always makes you feel a little uneasy, but in Doug we Trust. There are several things at play here that make me like Jacksonville. First of all, the coach. Pederson knows Andy Reid pretty well, he comes off the Andy tree. So its not like Reid can throw anything at him that he isn’t already fully aware of. Plus, Doug Pederson is 6-0 ATS in the playoffs as an underdog, gotta love that. I already gave you the trend that simply states, fade #1 seeds, especially if they’re favored by more than a TD. Then, I found this little gem too. Road teams that missed the playoffs a year prior, but won a game in the Wild-Card round in the current year, 68% ATS lifetime. I also look at the fact that the Jags played the Chiefs pretty tough earlier in the season, that game was also at Arrowhead. Jacksonville was awful in the first half of that game, but had several opportunities to make it a one score game late. They wound up losing by 10, but this is a much different Jags team now. So the fact that I get 9 points for a team that lost by 10 to this same team, in this same stadium weeks ago…yet, the Jags are better today than they were then. Feels like the right side to be on. Jags +9. Lock it up!