Stone-Cold Locks of the Week the final edition of the NFL’s regular season! Its been a roller coaster ride of a year. Steady to start, picked up real steam in October and November, and the winter chill has set in over the last month. 1-3-1 the last time we did this, its been a couple weeks, 56-41-3 on the season. Still hitting @ a 57% clip, pretty good.
General theme for this week, I’m fading teams desperate to get into the playoffs. Also, I’m adding the CFB Playoff Natty to the list, let’s get to it.
Titans (+6) @ Jags- Saturday game. For the division. A lot on the line here. I’m rolling with the Titans, I think this game is more of a coin flip than the spread suggests. The Jags have turned a corner and I think they’re a good team…but they’ve also never been in a situation like this. This is still a young team going up against a Titans squad that’s been there before. Mike Vrabel also, cover hero as an underdog, he hits @ a 70% rate as a dog. And I’m just not that worried about Josh Dobbs, I actually thought he looked alright last week against a Cowboys defense with a better pass rush than what he’ll see in Jacksonville. Give me the Titans +6. Lock it up!
Browns (+2.5) @ Steelers- This is the start of the trend I’m favoring this week with my picks. I like the idea of a perceived “dead team” going in to play spoiler vs a team desperate for a win. Found this fun little nugget to support this notion- Teams that are eliminated from the playoffs, playing teams that need to win to get in, since 1990, hit at a rate of 62% ATS. Now, I’m not just going to blindly take that, I also think the Steelers are a tough team to trust as a favorite, this is a team that is more comfortable in an underdog role. I think Cleveland matches up well here, I’ll take the Browns +2.5. Lock it up.
Jets (+3) @ Miami- The trend continues. I want teams that play hard and are well coached in these “spoiler” spots. The Jets are both of those things. Also, the last time the Jets faced off with Skylar Thompson, it wasn’t pretty. Week 5, Jets won 40-17. Give me the feisty Jets to take down my sinking Phins. Lock it up.
Rams (+6) @ Seahawks- Bobby Wagner revenge game! #SneakyStoryline...The Rams fit this spoiler mold to a tee, the Seahawks need to win to have a chance @ playoff contention, they have all the pressure, and the Rams get to come in with house money and ruin their day. One of the pleasures of the job for a real competitor. Also, Rams are indeed well coached, we’ve seen this team play hard. I don’t think they’ve quit on the season, they’re just not very good. But…I think they’re good enough to cover 6. Keep in mind, the last time these 2 teams met, it was John Wolford throwing 0 touchdowns against Geno and the Seahawks, and they only lost by 4. Rams +6, Lock it up.
Packers (-4.5) home vs Lions SNF- I hope I’m not late to the party here but GB has quickly become one of the best teams in football over these last few weeks, and I think they’re a little to hot to slow down – especially at home, at night, prime-time, in Lambeau. This just feels like a classic Rodgers blow up game. The receivers have been playing better, they’re healthy, and they’ve finally established a ground game. I just think this team is not only poised to clinch the postseason with a win, they’re the hot team that nobody wants to play right now. The Lions are a great story, I love them, I had them to go to the playoffs preseason, but this is simply asking too much of Jared Goff. This Lions team is a year away. I’m on the Pack. Lock it up.
TCU (+12.5) vs Georgia in the Natty- What are we doing here people? Did we learn nothing last week? Georgia’s defense is not what it was a year ago. They gave up 467 yards of offense to the Buckeyes last week. And if your thought process is “yeah, but, Ohio State has NFL guys on their offense”…so does TCU. They have arguably the best WR in the class in Quentin Johnston, they have the fastest player in CFB in Derius Davis, and their RB’s are NFL caliber too. I saw a TCU team that won the battle up front, on both sides of the ball, against dudes that play @ Michigan. They’re not going to be pushed around by Georgia. This line makes no sense, its simply SEC/Georgia bias, and professional bettors that have made thousands backing Georgia blindly every week for 2 years. I think TCU keeps it close, I think they can win this game too. TCU +12.5, lock it up!
Picks I like- Falcons -4, Eagles -14, Chargers +3, Commanders +7, TCU/Georgia OVER 62.5