Since we’re out the remainder of the week, I figured I’d tee up some Thanksgiving Day spreads (pun totally intended)…
TURKEY DAY LIKES!
Taking a bye week for Locks, don’t have enough time to really feel confident about locking these up…my record is very precious to me, but I will be betting all of the turkey day games and the 2 big in-state college games this weekend. So let’s take a look.
Bills (-9.5) @ Lions- I think we have a real issue with the Bills and yes, it does help that the Bills aren’t really on the road – at least no travel for Buffalo. But Detroit is tough and they play in a lot of close games, I think this spread is pretty out of whack. Here’s the one pause I have. Since 2004, favorites on Thanksgiving are 43-8 straight up (SU) and 35-16 against the spread (ATS). But I will take the Lions with confidence.
Giants @ Cowboys (-9)- The Giants got a bit exposed by the same Detroit team that we just talked about and the Cowboys are looking like one of the best teams in football after their beat down of the Minnesota Vikings. My gut tells me we see more of the same, of course, I don’t love having to give 9 points here but Dallas is a bad matchup for this Giants team, a team that just doesn’t have enough offense to keep up. Cowboys as TD or higher favorites on Thanksgiving: 9-1 SU, 7-3 ATS. Cowboys are 10-1 SU, 9-2 ATS in their last 11 games vs. Giants.
Pats @ Vikings (-2.5)- Kirk Cousins can not be trusted in prime-time and with this being a holiday game. Super-duper primetime spot. The Pats defense is for real, back to back weeks holding their opponents to 3 points. Prime-time underdogs have been very profitable this season, the Pats feel like the right side here.
Friday special- Florida @ FSU (-9.5)- FSU is steam rolling opponents here and betting on Florida will be no fun whatsoever but I think I have to do it here, when I looked ahead at this game, I figured FSU would be favored by 7 at the most, but 9.5, in a rivalry game like this, its too much. The look-ahead line weeks ago was FSU -2, big time over-correction, I think the Gators find a way to keep it close. (FSU’s last 3 wins were against Miami, Syracuse, and Louisiana, not exactly a gauntlet)
Saturday- UCF (-19.5) @ USF- Similar situation, rivalry game, but very different circumstances. USF is next-level bad. They are winless in the AAC and they got blown out by Temple! The same Temple team that gave up 70 to UCF. So I get the Knights pissed off after losing to Navy, going up against a USF that cannot wait for this season to come to its merciful end. 19.5 seems like a lot, but I don’t think UCF struggles to cover whatsoever.