The culmination of a week’s worth of work lands us right here, right now. Stone Cold Locks of the Week, I take great pride in my picks, I make predictions with convictions, and it is paying off big time.
38-17-1 (69%) on the season. Let’s see if I can keep it going.
LSU (+13.5) vs Bama- I would say I don’t get this line, but, Bama lines are routinely bloated. And for good reason, they have historically been beyond dominant under Nick Saban, but this year does feel a little different. This Alabama team hasn’t been as potent on offense, and they’re not getting after the passer the way we thought they would will Will Anderson off the edge. Plus, Bama on the road has been a completely different team these past 2 seasons…just 2 blowout wins. These are the rest of their road results: Win by 2, Loss, Win by 2, Win by 1, Loss. This team is skating by, and asking them to cover nearly 2 TD’s against a good LSU team is too much. Tigers +13.5 lock it up.
Texas (-2.5) @ Kansas State- Love betting Big 12 games, this conference is a rager every Saturday. Kansas State off a huge, decisive win last week 48-0 over Oklahoma State, but this week is a different animal. This Texas team has had some bad breaks, that’s why they sit @ 5-3, but I love their QB, love their ability to run the football with Bijan Robinson, and the strength of their defense is against the run, and that’s exactly how K-State wants to beat you. Plus, if you dig into the trends, KSU is in a bad spot. Ranked underdogs coming off of a blowout win- 17% ATS over the past several seasons. Longhorns -2.5, lock it up.
Tennessee (+8) @ Georgia- How can you not bet this game? Its too fun. Biggest game of the year in terms of what it means to the season. I’m on the Vols here. Wish I could say I was early to the party, but instead, I’m very late to it. Hopefully not too late. But, you gotta know when to pivot. Georgia theoretically should be able to win and cover. They have the better defense, they’re at home, they have experience. Everyone and their mother is going to be on Tennessee. HOWEVER, I still think the oddsmakers are missing something when it comes to this Georgia team, outside of that first week against Oregon where they were downright filthy, what have they done that’s impressed you? Squeaking by Kent State and Mizzou? Beating Vandy and Florida? They haven’t been tested. Meanwhile, all the Vols have been doing is passing tests. And to make matters even more fortuidous. Tennessee is getting one of their top receivers back in Cedric Tillman, who they haven’t had since week 3. Won’t be my biggest bet of the year but I love the # we’re getting, UT, lock it up.
Chargers (-3) @ Falcons- I have been a card carrying member of the Falcons ATS fan club but I think I have now reached my stop. I saw PJ Walker shred this defense last week, am I really to believe Justin Herbert can’t have his way with the Falcons? This LA team had a rough start to the season, and there aren’t a lot of other good football reasons to back this team, but I had them in the Super Bowl before the season, and if they’re ever going to get back to that status, they have to win this game with some conviction. I’m on the Chargers, I don’t expect you to follow. Lock it up.
Seahawks (+2) @ Arizona- We have a ‘wrong team favored’ alert, run to the window! The Seahawks are far and away the better team this season, this should at the very least be a pick em, but instead you get 2 points of value, and every digit counts when you’re betting the NFL. Seattle has proven they can win with defense, they did it against this same team a couple weeks back, holding the Cards to 9. They can win with their QB, Geno Smith, who has the 4th highest QB rating in the league this season. Also, coach advantage: Seahawks. Pete Carroll over the course of his career covers at a rate of 62% when he’s an underdog. Hawks +2, lock it up.
Bears (+5) vs Phins- I hate doing this, this is the ugly side of sports betting – going against your own team. Love my Phins and I love their chances to potentially do something special in the playoffs, but when you bet, you have to go game by game and week by week. This week, bad spot for the Dolphins. Back to back road games always tough in the NFL. And I know everyone is enamored with this offense, but let’s also consider, this team needed to play historically well to beat the Lions by 4, the week before that they almost lost to the Steelers. This team is deceivingly a grindhouse team, with an air raid offense. Its bizarre, but the Phins can be had on the ground, and that’s literally all the Bears do is run. Fields has been playing better, I think the Bears cover and possibly even win in an upset. Lock it up, sadly.
Picks I like- FSU -7.5, Florida +3.5, Saints +2.5, Lions +3.5, Jets +11.5