Kravitz's Stone-Cold Locks of the Week, All NFL Edition!

This has become tradition. This is embedded in the sports culture of orlando florida. STONE COLD LOCKS of the Week. Improving record week to week. Started off icy @ 1-4, followed by a 3-3 week, and then a 4-3 week last week. Total record through 3 weeks: 8-10 ATS. Now, one trend that I have followed closely for myself is my abysmal record picking CFB games, of my 8 wins 6 of them are on the NFL, so I’m not forcing it anymore. And this week, I don’t have a feel for anything going on @ the college level. All NFL here, 7 picks, 3 inside of the state, let’s get to it!

Jags (+7) @ Chargers- Love what I saw from the Jags in week 2, and how could you not? A shutout at home against the Colts, maybe that’s not exactly who they are, but we’ve seen now 2 years of evidence that they have that type of performance in them, and that defense just continues to get better with Josh Allen and now Travon Walker added to the mix. Herbert’s got banged up ribs, so that could limit him, like it did towards the end of that Thursday night game last week. If Trevor plays well, this will be an easy cover. Jags +7, lock it up.

Bucs (-1.5) hosting the Packers- I’ve faded the Bucs the first 2 weeks of the season because I don’t like what I see offensively from them, but their defense has more than made up for it, so its time to adjust. I think Aaron Rodgers is in serious trouble against a unit with 19 quarterback hits, 10 sacks and a 53.35 passer rating allowed through the first two games. Also, Rodgers apparently sucks in Florida, I didn’t realize this until it was pointed out to me by Raheem Palmer, but Rodgers record inside the state of florida is 3-5, straight up. TD to INT ratio in Florida 11 TD’s, 11 picks. Something about this Florida climate throws him off, a trend worth backing. Bucs -1.5, lock it up!

Phins (+5.5) hosting the Bills- This one feels huge and might come off as a home play, but that’s only partially true. I gave this stat out earlier this week and its worth repeating…teams that have covered through the first 2 weeks of the season at a rate above 20ppg, over the last 20 years, have failed to cover in week 3 100% of the time. The Phins might be overhyped coming into this matchup, but the Bills are overvalued. I get a home/divisional dog who can put up points, and a Florida team at home in the heat of September, you take that every time. Phins +5.5, lock it up.

Commanders (+6.5) hosting the Eagles- Similar situation here, home divisional dog catching nearly a touchdown at home. Look, I love the Eagles, but this Commanders team can play, I think this game comes down to a final possession in either direction. And oh, by the way, so did the sportsbooks prior to the season, the look ahead line on this game was a pick ‘em, and now you get 6.5 taking Washington. Lock it up.

Falcons (pick em) @ Seattle- No real sharp analysis here, I’ve just seen both of these teams play and one is far better than the other. Mariota’s playing well, Drake London looks like a polished pro, they run the ball well with Patterson…the Falcons are 0-2 but they pushed the Saints and the Rams to the brink, and they did all of that without ever getting Kyle Pitts involved. Seattle is awful, they gave us that great game vs Denver to open the season, but that might be their only win this year. I’ll take the Falcons straight up, lock it up.

49ers (+1.5) @ Denver on SNF- Is this line real life? This feels like an early Christmas present. Russ looks broken, Nate Hackett can’t coach, and this team almost lost to the Texans at home. Maybe they turn things around this week…but facing a stout 49ers squad who feels reenergized with Jimmy G at QB doesn’t feel like the best time to do it, I’ll take the Niners with confidence, lock it up.

Colts (+6.5) home vs the Chiefs- Trends, trends, trends…I get this is gross…but so was Cowboys +7 last week, and so was Seahawks +6 the week before that. Sometimes, bad teams cover spreads. And this feels like one of those times. Total trap game, go ahead, put it in your teaser, put the Chiefs in your 18 team parlay, you will lose…sportsbooks know what they are doing. Here are the trends that make the Colts a good play… It’s a buy-low desperation home opener spot. Dogs off shutouts vs favorites not off a bye 41-21-3 (66%) ATS since 2005. The Colts as a team, 9-3-1 ATS under Frank Reich as a dog by more than a FG. Andy Reid off a bye is amazing, but off extended rest, not so much. 7-10 ATS when he has 9 to 13 days off. Weird trends, odd stuff, it all points to Indy. Lock it up. 

Disclaimer: For what its worth, I would take Florida +10.5 @ UT after thinking it through, but I just don’t have it in me to bet Gator games at the moment. Maybe a sprinkle come 330 on Saturday, but that’s my only semi-strong college lean. I’m sort of beat up with these college games.

Super Bowl LV

Photo: Getty Images

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