Embedded in the sports culture of orlando florida. STONE COLD LOCKS of the Week. Volume 3. Not my best start to the year, but I usually start slow. Tragic 1-4 week 1, followed up by 3-3 last week. 2-1 on my NFL picks. So I think I know what I need to do here. Can’t trust these college kids, I have a couple college picks but I’m going heavy NFL until it bites me and then we’ll reverse course. Here…we…go!
FSU (-2.5) @ Louisville- Malik Cunningham terrifies me and the last thing I want to do is enter into the weekend with another L on my record, but I really like the way this FSU team matches up with Louisville. How do you contend with a mobile QB who is a one man show on offense? With a lighting quick defense that hits hard, that’s exactly what Florida State has. Plus, they had an extra week to prepare – and the QB they faced 2 weeks ago, Jayden Daniels, was a carbon copy stylistically, so they already have practice in how to defend a guy like this. Louisville isn’t great against the run, which is one of the reasons the loss from UCF was so puzzling…I don’t see FSU straying away from that part of the game. FSU -2.5. Lock it up.
Nebraska (+11.5) hosting OU- Coaching turmoil, team gets embarrassed, coach gets fired…we’ve seen this play out at all levels more times than I can count. This is an auto-play every time on the underdog. I know Nebraska just lost to Georgia Southern, but its not like this Sooners team is what they’ve been in the past either. They led just 3-0 against Kent State last week @ halftime. I’ll take the Cornhuskers @ home, double digit dogs with a fired up interim coach. Lock it up.
Saints (+3) hosting TB- I’ve been shouting this one from the rooftops all week. The Saints absolutely own the Brady led Bucs in the regular season. 4-0, we’ve all heard the stat at this point. But honestly, that’s not even the top reason I like this bet. The Bucs looked awful on Sunday night against the Cowboys, and the only reason they won comfortably, is because the Cowboys looked worse. This Saints team has weapons on offense and their defense is going to harass Brady and his beat up o-line. Give me the Saints +3 all day with a beignet. Lock it up.
Jags (+4) hosting the Colts- Another strong trend to follow, how about 0-7 their last 7 trips to Jacksonville? The Colts struggle there and I know I’ve spent the week doubting the talents of Trevor Lawrence, but honestly, as a team, I think the Jags look improved from where they were a year ago. The defense faded down the stretch but Wentz was also playing out of his mind. This Colts team was gifted a tie last week, they were absolutely dominated by the Texans, no way they deserve to be a 4 point road favorite against a team they can’t beat. Jags +4, lock it up!
49ers (-8.5) hosting the Seahawks- Classic fade spot for Seattle. Here we have a team, on a short week, that just won their “Super Bowl” and Geno Smith played the game of his life. What are the odds they back that up with a stellar performance? Very, very low. San Fran on the other hand has a Super Bowl talented roster, and just got embarrassed in Chicago in a monsoon. We still have no idea how good or bad this team is, but we’re definitely getting value on them in this spot because of what happened last week. This is an overreaction line. 49ers -8.5. Lock it up!
Falcons (+10) @ LA Rams- Well, now that I’ve spent the last few minutes telling you not to over react, allow me to do a little bit of it. Ya know, not everything we saw in week 1 was a mirage…I think the Rams might actually be in trouble. Yes, the Bills are that good, but the Rams couldn’t move the football. Their run game was awful and they don’t have a secondary target to lighten the load for Cooper Kupp. And I love me some Arthur Smith, I think he’s a really good coach and this Falcons team is fun. This feels like a squad, that because of their ability to run the football, and their creative play calling – they’re going to be in close games all year. I don’t think the Rams deserve to hang a 10 spot on anyone right now. I see real warts. Give me the Falcons +10. Lock it up!
Steelers (+2) hosting the Patriots- This was the first line I jumped on this week and while I don’t love the fact that our betting guru Raheem Palmer likes the Pats, I’m taking a stand on this one. Even without TJ Watt, the Steelers still have enough on defense to get after Mac Jones. I think this Patriots team is God-awful. Their receivers can’t separate, their RB’s are average, their o-line can’t pass block, and they have Joe Judge and Matt Patricia calling plays. I get Mike Tomlin as a home dog, with a team that believes in itself after beating a divisional rival? I’m all over that. Love Belichick, but he’s the only reason the Steelers aren’t favored here, and this roster is beyond Bill’s repair. Lock it up.