Here are my Stone-Cold Locks of the week – another down week, what is life?! – last week was so close to going really really well, but OU just had to put in Caleb Williams…Jon Gruden had to go sending bigoted emails…anyway, I digress. Like I’ve said before, we’re playing the long game folks…this isn’t about over-reacting to a down week. Time to knock one back, a little hair of the dog… 4-5 last week. 18-20 on the year, time to climb above .500!
throw away the keys – let’s lock ‘em up!
Kentucky (+22) @ Georgia- Let’s start in Athens with this mega-matchup between the 2 best defensive teams in the SEC, Georgia ranks #1 in pretty much everything (fewest overall yards, fewest pass yards, and 4th fewest rush yards allowed), on top of that, they’ve allowed just 26 points…ON THE SEASON. Crazy. But, Kentucky is no slouch this year, they rank 17th nationally in overall defense, and its their run game (which actually ranks higher than Georgia’s) that has me buying in. The Wildcats ran for over 300 yards last week against LSU. It’s the one and only thing you can do against Georgia. I expect this game to be close, low scoring, Georgia wins, UK covers. Lock it up.
Texas (-4) hosting Oklahoma State- I saw what I saw last Saturday, I think this Texas team is legit, obviously they play zero defense, but neither does anybody else in their conference. Had Caleb Williams, a top-flight QB recruit, who they didn’t prepare for, had he not come in – Texas beats OU in a route. If that’s the case, this number looks more like -8 than -4. Last time I checked, OSU doesn’t have a Caleb Williams. Texas bounces back strong, covers the 4 with ease. Lock it up!
Lions (+3.5) hosting the Bengals- I love the Lions and I don’t care who knows it. This team has so much grit, they play so hard, and they are way overdue for a win. 2 of their last 3 games have been 2 point losses on last second field goals. The Lions are 0-5, but you can tell that by watching them, there’s buy in with this team. On the other side, I’m not sure getting rushed to the hospital for a throat contusion, where you have trouble talking, is something that just heals overnight. If that crowd is into it, and the Bengals have a hard time communicating their plays, that’s a huge advantage for Detroit. Give me the Lions +3.5. Lock it up.
Raiders (+3.5) @ Denver- How many times have we seen this story play out? Maybe not exactly this was with racist and hateful emails but with a coach losing his lockeroom, team gets blown out, and then coach gets fired, and the team comes out playing a ridiculously inspired brand of football. All the distractions and disruptions in the world and the Raiders are still just 3.5 point dawgs?! That isn’t a red flag to you? It should be…because Denver is bad. Last 2 weeks, barely competitive against the Ravens and the Steelers. They should not be favored by a field goal against any respectable opponent. Raiders win and cover, lock it up.
Browns (-3) hosting the Cardinals- The Cardinals started this season blistering hot, scoring into the 30’s in their first 4 games played, then, last week, they finally hit a snag. 17-10, barely hanging on against a rookie QB who isn’t quite ready for NFL action. This team is good, but they are ripe for a loss. They’ll be without a few players due to positive COVID tests, they allow 5.1 ypc – not good when you are facing the Browns, and Kyler’s arm isn’t made for the windy conditions of Cleveland. I like the Brownies -3, a lot, lock it up. Best bet of the week.
Bills (-5.5) @ Tennessee on MNF- Every once in a while, Vegas likes to hand out a freebee. You have to have a keen eye to spot it, it’s the morsels of candy leading to the trap several feet away…well, I’ll take the bait. The Bills are far and away the better team here, they just went on the road to hostel KC and blew out the Chiefs, you think they’re going to be phased by the Titans? The Bills are 3rd against the run this year and that’s basically all you have to stop with Tennessee, take the free money. Bills -5.5, lock it up!