Every week, I give you my top picks of the week, nay,my locks of the week. Take it to the bank! Let’s go with my stone cold locks!
Let’s review how I did last week…1-4.
On the year: 17-21
This week, I’m coming with a very clear strategy, I want value. I need to get back into the win column, and the only way to do that is to seek out the bets that weaker men are unwilling to take. We must rise up, we must defend what is ours, we must regain the sense of pride and excellence that brought us to the dance…
I feel properly motivated now to not go 0-4. Let’s do this.
1.Washington (+3) @ Dallas
a.The Cowboys are going to get all this extra love because they beat the Vikings who were red-hot, but we forget that the team they’re going up against got a win of their own on Sunday. Now, Washington may have beaten up on Cincinnati, but they dominated that game, 20-9. Their d-line is ridiculously talented, and the Cowboys o-line has been struggling all year. Washington is going to turn Dalton into mashed potatoes. Take the Football Team +3 and make some gravy.
2.Cardinals @ Pats (+2.5)
a.What did I say, I want bargains. Well, that is exactly what this is. Kyler Murray has been scorching hot, and the public loves him dearly…but let’s keep this in mind. 1) He’s never gone up against Bill Belichick. 2) The Pats have been playing really well. They lost last week, but won the previous 2, and they were a drive away from tying it up against the Texans. 3) The Cardinals have struggled against the AFC East. They lost to the Phins, and would’ve lost to the Bills if not for a miraculous HAIL MURRAY. Cam Newton will be STUFFING the end-zone with TD’s. Take the Pats +2.5.
3.Chiefs @ Bucs (+3.5)
a.Look, the Bucs are a mess but, as bad as they looked on Monday night. They still only lost by 3. Brady has a history of turning a bad performance into a good one the following week, and another thing I like…this game isn’t in prime time. 2 important #’s to follow: Brady/Bucs are 1-3 in prime time. 6-1 in all other games. Also, Brady/Bucs have 4 losses, but average 38ppg after a loss. I’m not sure they’ll win, but, I like getting them as a home underdog. Even if Mahomes slices them up like properly baked mac-n-cheese.
4.Titans @ Colts (-3)
a.It’s always interesting to see how the market reacts to 2 teams coming off big wins, and which one gains more steam because of it. Well, it seems the Titans are the beneficiary in this one. A whopping 75% of bets are being laid on the Titans +3, and frankly, I don’t think they’re as good as the Colts. Rivers last 2 weeks, 596 passing yards, 4 TD’s and 1 pick. The run game is cooking, and their linebackers are good enough to get Derrick Henry to the ground. That’s why the Colts won so decisively the last time these 2 teams played. 34-17. I expect more of that. Lay off the tryptophan and stop sleeping on the Colts! Indy -3.