Locks of the Week:
Let’s review how I did last week…3-1.
On the year: 13-16
1.Phins (-2.5) hosting the Chargers
a.Throwbacks! What other reason do I need? From a betting perspective, the fact that I can still get this under 3 points I like, the fact that the Chargers are flying across the country, I like. Tua has yet to lose, and as Danny Donohue told us on Monday, the Phins have the best cover differential in the league @ +11. Herbert has been special, but no one knows how to blow a game like this Chargers team…maybe the Falcons, but that’s it.
2.Titans (-1) vs Colts TNF
a.I never get to pick Thursday night games on my list of locks, but here we go, an early bird special. I don’t trust the colts as far as I can throw them, but Vegas, for whatever reason, keeps giving them this love they don’t deserve. The Colts have 5 wins on the year, listen to who they’ve beaten: Vikings, Jets, Bears, Bengals, and Lions. That’s 1 team above .500 and it was Nick Foles first week as a starter. I like Tennessee and I don’t know why everyone is so slow to come around on them. Their defense is suspect but offensively, they can pack a punch, they can meet you in a shootout, and they can ground and pound with the best of ‘em. This one’s easy for me, almost too easy. Titans get another W.
3.Texans (+3) @ Cleveland
a.Talk about overvalued, my goodness. The last time we saw the Browns, all they could muster, in a home game mind-you, was 6 points against the Raiders. Nick Chubb should be back for this one, but I can’t trust Cleveland. Houston on the other hand, you can kind of sense them turning the corner a bit. They got off to a terrible start, but, they’ve won 2 of their last 4, and let’s be honest. They have the better QB here. The Browns snubbed Watson in the 2017 draft, opting to go with Myles Garrett, Duke Johnson is starting for the Texans…another revenge spot. Oh, and Romeo Crennel, current Texans interim, was fired by the Browns. Houston wins and covers. (Also, for what its worth, 67% of bettors are on the Browns, same % that took Seattle last week vs Buffalo)
4.UCF -24.5 vs Temple
a.I know, nearly 25 points is A LOT, and I don’t like that either, but perhaps we don’t appreciate just how bad Temple is. UCF has tripped up a couple times this year but that was against decent competition, that won’t be the case here. Temple has lost 3 straight and has given up 41, 38, and 47 points in those games. All against offenses not as good as UCF. Let’s also remember, the last time the Knights played at home, it was a little less than a month ago, so they’ll be happy to get some home cooking. I think this team is poised for another breakout performance, they’re over the stink from the beginning of the year. UCF wallops the Owls. Take the Knights, give the points.
photo: getty images