Let's me get this out of the way, I love Jarvis Landry. I'm a Dolphins fan, he's an exciting player, and I would love if the Phins are able to retain him. At the right price. The football "analyst" in me knows signing him to a Julio or Hopkins type contract would be a huge mistake. The salary cap in the NFL is a cruel-cruel beast, and the best teams don't over-pay players that they don't get a great ROI (return on investment) from. That would be the case if you over pay for Landry.
He's really good. But he's more Doug Baldwin good than he is Antonio Brown good. And the numbers back it up. Yards per catch is a highly important statistic to the analytics world when it comes to wide receivers and determining their "elite-ness" level. The best receivers all have this in common - they average about 15 yards per catch. Landry averages about half of that. Last year Jarvis averaged 8.8 yards per catch (a career worst) and has never exceeded the 12 ypc mark. When it comes to overall yardage, it took him 160 targets to get to the 987 mark, for reference, it took TY Hilton 108 targets to get to about the same number. And it took slightly above average Marquise Goodwin 105 targets to get to a similar yardage number. The best receivers in the league should be putting up about 1,400 yards or more with the same amount of usage. Jarvis is used often, and again he's good, but he doesn't do with a lot with what he's given.
Many Landry supporters will boast his 9 touchdowns, which were 6 more than the great Julio Jones put up. One year spikes in touchdown production are not a way to judge a players value or success moving forward, everyone who plays fantasy football annually can tell you that. In his first 3 seasons he scored 4, 4, and 5 touchdowns. It's much more likely that that's his norm, as opposed to the 9.
This is the stat that is the most telling to me. Catches of 20 yards or more. The best receivers in the league usually hover around the 20 mark. Jarvis had 6 this past season. That's 6 catches that went for 20 yards or more. That number is not only bad for wide receivers, it's middle of the pack for tight-ends.
Final point: Jarvis is a good, tough, gritty player that certainly makes your team better than he does making it worse. But, he is not worth the type of money high-end #1 wide receivers get on the open market.
- Kravitz