Stone-Cold Locks back @ for another round of my favorite bets this weekend. Been a meh season so far, still waiting to bust through the glass ceiling, but its coming, I can feel it. 2-2 last week. 26-30 on the season. Let’s make some $$$.

*all picks reflect this morning’s odds @ HRBET.

Texas Tech -23.5 vs UCF- I’ve had this one circled for a few weeks now. Wasn’t sure where the sportsbooks would set the line, but south of 30 feels like a treat. I know it’s a lot of points, but these 2 programs are living in different worlds right now. TT is a legit national title contender, while UCF is struggling to stay competitive with mid-to-lower tier Big 12 teams. Texas Tech’s strength is in the trenches, they have one of the best defensive lines in all of CFB, and UCF’s o-line has been an issue since they left the friendly confines of the AAC. Put frankly, this is the worst possible matchup for UCF right now. Tayven Jackson can’t move the football and unless the Red Raiders fall asleep at the wheel here, this one should be ugly. TT minus the points, lock it up.

Texas +6.5 @ Georgia- Giddy up, more love for the state of Texas. The Longhorns have fallen way short of expectations this season, they are not the juggernaut we all thought they would be (me included) and most weeks they’ve been a really strong fade candidate because for a while, they were still overvalued in the betting market because of their name and hype. They are an abysmal 2-6-1 ATS this season. However, pretty much all of that has been in the favorite role. I think this Texas team could thrive as underdogs, similar to what we saw against OU, they wound up closing as favorites, but they were underdogs right up until the day of the game and they smashed. Some teams are just like that. And quietly, Arch Manning has figured it out as of late, Arch threw for over 300 yards and three touchdowns in each of his last 2 games and hasn't committed a turnover-worthy play since the win over Oklahoma. I’ve been skeptical of the Bulldogs all year, happy to fade them again. Hook em Horns, lock it up!

Texans -6.5 @ Titans- Ok, now this Texas thing is getting ridiculous. I know Stroud is out, but I think there is still value on this Houston team. The Texans defense is elite – the Titans can’t move the football, they’ve turned the ball over 13x this year. Texans D 4th in takeaways. #1 in success rate, facing the team that is 32nd in success rate on offense. QB be damned, this is about the leagues top D facing the league’s worst offense. Give me the Houston Texans for my final play inside the Lonestar State this week, lock it up!

Panthers +3.5 @ Atlanta- Hard to trust Atlanta here. Falcons coming from overseas with no bye week, never like that spot for these teams. 19 of the 30 occurences where a team was on 7 days rest before playing another one, coming back from overseas…we saw those teams tied or trailing in the 4th quarter. Carolina, not trustable as a favorite (we saw that last week against new orleans) but they’ve won and covered each of their last 2 road games, this is an underdog team, playing the underdog role – against a sketchy falcons group, a team that Carolina already dog walked this season 30-0. Sad cats +3.5, lock it up!

Seahawks +3 @ Rams- Fun stat from my pals @ Action Network. Both teams 7-2, both teams covering at a rate of 77% as well. First time since 1990 we’ve had 2 teams with a cover rate that high play each other after week 10. McVay is 11-2 ATS against seattle is their last 13 matchups, but this Seahawks team feels different. One of just 2 teams that is top 10 in offensive and defensive success rate (Lions the other). And I think this Seahawks team still has another gear in them defensively, their d-line has been getting better and better every week and their secondary is finally getting healthy. Should be a great game, I’ll take the dog, lock it up!

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