Canadiens vs. Lightning Prediction & Picks - NHL Playoffs First Round Game

Game 7 of the NHL Playoffs First Round at Benchmark International Arena on Sunday, May 3 showcases the Tampa Bay Lightning and the Montreal Canadiens meeting at 6 p.m. ET on TNT. The series is tied up 3-3. Bookmakers favor the Lightning in this decisive matchup, with -167 odds on the moneyline against the Canadiens (+140).

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Here is our pick for who will claim the win in this NHL Playoffs First Round contest.

Canadiens vs. Lightning Predictions for Sunday

Our computer model for this matchup expects a final score of Lightning 4, Canadiens 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-167)
• Total Pick: Over 5 (computer predicts 6.3 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Canadiens (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning are 50-26-6 overall and 12-8-20 in overtime games.
• In the 31 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has a 14-11-6 record (good for 34 points).
• In the 10 games this season the Lightning scored just one goal, they went 3-6-1 (seven points).
• Tampa Bay has taken 14 points from the 21 games this season when it scored exactly two goals (5-12-4 record).
• The Lightning have scored at least three goals in 55 games (45-7-3, 93 points).
• In the 29 games when Tampa Bay has scored a single power-play goal, it picked up 38 points after finishing 17-8-4.
• In the 50 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 30-14-6 (66 points).
• The Lightning's opponents have had more shots in 36 games. The Lightning went 21-13-2 in those matchups (44 points).

Canadiens Splits and Trends

• The Canadiens have a record of 48-24-10 this season and are 16-12-28 in overtime matchups.
• In the 36 games Montreal has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 51 points.
• This season the Canadiens registered only one goal in five games and they've earned two points (1-4-0) in those contests.
• When Montreal has scored exactly two goals this season, they've earned 10 points (4-9-2 record).
• The Canadiens have scored at least three goals 63 times, earning 101 points from those matchups (46-8-9).
• Montreal has scored a single power-play goal in 29 games this season and has recorded 42 points from those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Montreal is 18-15-2 (38 points).
• The Canadiens have been outshot by opponents in 49 games, going 30-9-10 to register 70 points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Canadiens vs. Lightning Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Sunday, May 3, 2026 at 6 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: TNT
• Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
• Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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