Photo: Minas Panagiotakis / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images
Wednesday will see the Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens square off in Game 5 of the NHL Playoffs First Round at Benchmark International Arena, starting at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN2. The series is knotted up 2-2. The Canadiens are underdogs (+142) against the Lightning (-168).
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Ahead of watching this matchup, here is our prediction for which club will bring home the win in Wednesday's NHL Playoffs First Round action.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Predictions for Wednesday
Our computer model for this matchup calls for a final score of Lightning 4, Canadiens 3.
- Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-168)
- Total Pick: Over 5.5 (computer predicts 6.4 goals on average)
- Spread Pick: Canadiens (+1.5)
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Lightning Splits and Trends
- The Lightning are 50-26-6 overall and 11-8-19 in overtime matchups.
- In the 29 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has a 13-10-6 record (good for 32 points).
- Looking at the nine times this season the Lightning ended a game with only one goal, they have a 2-6-1 record, good for five points.
- Tampa Bay has scored exactly two goals in 20 games this season (5-11-4 record, 14 points).
- The Lightning have scored three or more goals 55 times, and are 45-7-3 in those games (to record 93 points).
- In the 29 games when Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal, it went 17-8-4 to record 38 points.
- In the 48 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 29-13-6 (64 points).
- The Lightning have been outshot by opponents 36 times, and went 21-13-2 (44 points).
Canadiens Splits and Trends
- The Canadiens (48-24-10 overall) have posted a record of 16-11-27 in contests that have required OT this season.
- Montreal has earned 48 points (21-7-6) in its 34 games decided by one goal.
- This season the Canadiens scored just one goal in five games and they've earned two points (1-4-0) in those contests.
- When Montreal has scored exactly two goals this season, they've earned 10 points (4-9-2 record).
- The Canadiens have earned 99 points in their 62 games with three or more goals scored.
- Montreal has scored a lone power-play goal in 29 games this season and has recorded 42 points from those matchups.
- When outshooting its opponent this season, Montreal is 18-15-2 (38 points).
- The Canadiens have been outshot by opponents 47 times this season, and earned 67 points in those games.
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Team Stats Comparison
| Lightning Rank | Lightning AVG | Canadiens AVG | Canadiens Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th | 3.49 | Goals Scored | 3.4 | 7th |
| 3rd | 2.79 | Goals Allowed | 3.06 | 16th |
| 14th | 28 | Shots | 26.3 | 22nd |
| 9th | 26.6 | Shots Allowed | 27.8 | 18th |
| 17th | 20.33% | Power Play % | 23.14% | 10th |
| 3rd | 82.56% | Penalty Kill % | 78.14% | 19th |