Lightning vs. Canadiens Prediction & Picks - NHL Playoffs First Round Game

The Tampa Bay Lightning and Montreal Canadiens hit the ice for Game 4 of the NHL Playoffs First Round on Sunday, April 26, beginning at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN. The Canadiens have a 2-1 lead in the series. Oddsmakers give the Lightning -117 odds on the moneyline in this matchup against the Canadiens (-103).

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Ahead of watching this matchup, here is a peek at which squad we pick to emerge with the victory in Sunday's NHL Playoffs First Round action.

Lightning vs. Canadiens Predictions for Sunday

Our computer projection model for this matchup expects a final tally of Canadiens 4, Lightning 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Canadiens (-103)
• Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.4 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Canadiens (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning have a 50-26-6 record overall, with an 11-8-19 record in games that have gone to overtime.
• Tampa Bay is 12-10-6 (30 points) in its 28 games decided by one goal.
• The nine times this season the Lightning finished a game with just one goal, they went 2-6-1 (five points).
• Tampa Bay has scored exactly two goals in 20 games this season (5-11-4 record, 14 points).
• The Lightning are 44-7-3 in the 54 games when they have scored at least three goals (to record 91 points).
• In the 28 games when Tampa Bay has capitalized on a single power-play goal, it picked up 36 points after finishing 16-8-4.
• In the 47 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 28-13-6 (62 points).
• The Lightning's opponents have had more shots in 36 games. The Lightning went 21-13-2 in those contests (44 points).

Canadiens Splits and Trends

• The Canadiens have a 48-24-10 record this season and are 16-11-27 in contests that have needed overtime.
• In the 33 games Montreal has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 48 points.
• This season the Canadiens scored just one goal in five games and they've earned two points (1-4-0) in those contests.
• When Montreal has scored a pair of goals this season, they've earned 10 points (4-8-2 record).
• The Canadiens have scored more than two goals in 62 games, earning 99 points from those contests.
• This season, Montreal has recorded a single power-play goal in 28 games and picked up 42 points with a record of 20-6-2.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Montreal is 18-15-2 (38 points).
• The Canadiens' opponents have had more shots in 46 games. The Canadiens finished 29-8-9 in those contests (67 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Canadiens Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Sunday, April 26, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN
• Where: Bell Centre in Montréal, Quebec

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