Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images
Game 1 of the NHL Playoffs First Round on Sunday, April 19 showcases the Tampa Bay Lightning hosting the Montreal Canadiens at Benchmark International Arena at 5:45 p.m. ET on TNT. The Canadiens have +154 odds on the moneyline against the favored Lightning (-187).
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Here's our pick for who will clinch the victory in this NHL Playoffs First Round contest.
Canadiens vs. Lightning Predictions for Sunday
Our computer projections model for this encounter predicts a final score of Lightning 4, Canadiens 3.
- Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-187)
- Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.5 goals on average)
- Spread Pick: Canadiens (+1.5)
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Lightning Splits and Trends
- The Lightning (50-26-6 overall) have a 10-6-16 record in matchups that have required overtime.
- Tampa Bay has 26 points (11-10-4) in the 25 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
- Looking at the nine times this season the Lightning ended a game with just one goal, they have a 2-6-1 record, good for five points.
- Tampa Bay has scored exactly two goals in 19 games this season (5-11-3 record, 13 points).
- The Lightning are 43-7-2 in the 52 games when they have scored more than two goals (to record 88 points).
- In the 27 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a lone power-play goal, it went 16-8-3 to register 35 points.
- In the 45 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 27-13-5 (59 points).
- The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in 35 games, going 21-13-1 to register 43 points.
Canadiens Splits and Trends
- The Canadiens have a 14-10-24 record in overtime matchups this season and a 48-24-10 overall record.
- Montreal has earned 43 points (19-6-5) in its 30 games that finished with a one-goal margin.
- This season the Canadiens scored just one goal in five games and they've earned two points (1-4-0) in those contests.
- Montreal has nine points (4-8-1) when scoring two goals this season.
- The Canadiens have earned 95 points in their 60 games with more than two goals scored.
- Montreal has scored a single power-play goal in 27 games this season and has recorded 41 points from those matchups.
- When it outshoots its opponent this season, Montreal has posted a record of 17-15-2 (36 points).
- The Canadiens' opponents have had more shots in 44 games. The Canadiens finished 28-8-8 in those matchups (64 points).
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Team Stats Comparison
| Lightning Rank | Lightning AVG | Canadiens AVG | Canadiens Rank | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4th | 3.49 | Goals Scored | 3.4 | 7th |
| 3rd | 2.79 | Goals Allowed | 3.06 | 16th |
| 14th | 28 | Shots | 26.3 | 22nd |
| 9th | 26.6 | Shots Allowed | 27.8 | 18th |
| 17th | 20.33% | Power Play % | 23.14% | 10th |
| 3rd | 82.56% | Penalty Kill % | 78.14% | 19th |
Canadiens vs. Lightning Game Time and TV Channel
- When: Sunday, April 19, 2026 at 5:45 p.m. ET
- TV Channel: TNT
- Live Stream: Watch this match on HBO Max (Regional restrictions may apply)
- Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida
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