Lightning vs. Oilers Prediction & Picks - March 21

The Tampa Bay Lightning (42-21-4) square off against the Edmonton Oilers (34-27-9) at Rogers Place on Saturday, March 21 at 10 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Lightning took down the Vancouver Canucks 6-2 in their last outing, while the Oilers are coming off a 4-0 loss to the Florida Panthers.

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Ahead of watching this matchup, here's a look at which team we think will come out on top in Saturday's action on the ice.

The Oilers have gone 5-4-1 over their last 10 games, scoring 32 goals while giving up 37 in that time. On 30 power-play opportunities during that time, they have scored eight goals (26.7%).

Lightning vs. Oilers Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projections model for this matchup calls for a final result of Oilers 4, Lightning 3.

• Moneyline Pick: Oilers (+114)
• Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 6.3 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Oilers (+1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning are 42-21-4 overall and 9-4-13 in overtime contests.
• Tampa Bay is 8-9-2 (18 points) in its 19 games decided by one goal.
• The seven times this season the Lightning ended a game with only one goal, they went 2-4-1 (five points).
• Tampa Bay has finished 4-8-3 in the 15 games this season when it scored a pair of goals (registering 11 points).
• The Lightning are 36-7-0 in the 43 games when they have scored at least three goals (to record 72 points).
• In the 24 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a lone power-play goal, it has a 15-7-2 record (32 points).
• In the 37 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 23-11-3 (49 points).
• The Lightning have been outshot by opponents 29 times, and went 18-10-1 (37 points).

Oilers Splits and Trends

• The Oilers have posted a record of 8-9-17 in overtime contests as part of an overall mark of 34-27-9.
• Edmonton has earned 30 points (12-10-6) in its 28 games decided by one goal.
• This season the Oilers scored just one goal in five games and they finished 0-4-1 in those matchups.
• Edmonton has five points (2-11-1) when scoring exactly two goals this season.
• The Oilers have earned 71 points in their 48 games with three or more goals scored.
• Edmonton has scored a lone power-play goal in 29 games this season and has recorded 30 points from those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Edmonton is 22-17-6 (50 points).
• The Oilers have been outshot by opponents in 23 games, going 10-10-3 to register 23 points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Oilers Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, March 21, 2026 at 10 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Rogers Place in Edmonton, Alberta

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