Lightning vs. Red Wings Prediction & Picks - March 12

The Tampa Bay Lightning (39-20-4) host the Detroit Red Wings (36-22-7) at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, March 12 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+, with each team fresh off of a loss. The Lightning are coming off a 5-2 defeat to the Columbus Blue Jackets, while the Red Wings were beaten by the Florida Panthers 4-3 in their most recent game.

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Prepare for this matchup by checking out our pick for who will win the game in Thursday's hockey action.

The Red Wings have a 4-5-1 record in their last 10 contests. They have scored 21 goals while conceding 26 in that period. On the power play, 28 opportunities have resulted in four goals (14.3% conversion rate).

Lightning vs. Red Wings Predictions for Thursday

Our computer projection model for this game calls for a final score of Lightning 4, Red Wings 2.

• Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-219)
• Total Pick: Over 6 (computer predicts 6.2 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning (39-20-4 overall) have a 9-4-13 record in contests that have required overtime.
• Tampa Bay has 18 points (8-9-2) in the 19 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
• In the seven games this season the Lightning scored only one goal, they went 2-4-1 (five points).
• Tampa Bay has scored a pair of goals in 14 games this season (4-7-3 record, 11 points).
• The Lightning are 33-7-0 in the 40 games when they have scored more than two goals (to register 66 points).
• In the 22 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a lone power-play goal, it went 13-7-2 to register 28 points.
• In the 34 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 20-11-3 (43 points).
• The Lightning's opponents have had more shots in 28 games. The Lightning went 18-9-1 in those matchups (37 points).

Red Wings Splits and Trends

• The Red Wings have a 11-7-18 record in overtime games this season and a 36-22-7 overall record.
• Detroit has earned 36 points (16-3-4) in its 23 games that finished with a one-goal margin.
• This season the Red Wings scored just one goal in nine games and they lost every time.
• Detroit has 15 points (7-5-1) when scoring a pair of goals this season.
• The Red Wings have scored more than two goals 39 times, earning 64 points from those matchups (29-4-6).
• This season, Detroit has capitalized on a single power-play goal in 28 games and registered 38 points with a record of 18-8-2.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Detroit is 18-12-4 (40 points).
• The Red Wings have been outshot by opponents in 29 games, going 18-8-3 to register 39 points.

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Red Wings Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Thursday, March 12, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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