Lightning vs. Sabres Prediction & Picks - Feb. 28

The Tampa Bay Lightning (38-15-4), winners of 11 home games in a row, host the Buffalo Sabres (34-19-6) at Benchmark International Arena on Saturday at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+.

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Here is our prediction for who will capture the victory in Saturday's matchup.

In the past 10 contests, the Sabres have put up a record of 7-2-1. They have totaled 37 goals, while allowing their opponents to score 24. They have gone on the power play 30 times during that span, and have capitalized with seven goals (23.3% of opportunities).

Lightning vs. Sabres Predictions for Saturday

Our computer projection model for this encounter expects a final result of Lightning 4, Sabres 2.

• Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-244)
• Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 6.2 goals on average)
• Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

• The Lightning are 38-15-4 overall and 9-4-13 in overtime games.
• Tampa Bay has 18 points (8-8-2) in the 18 games it has played that were decided by one goal.
• In the five games this season the Lightning scored just one goal, they went 2-2-1 (five points).
• Tampa Bay has scored two goals in 12 games this season (4-5-3 record, 11 points).
• The Lightning have scored at least three goals in 38 games (32-6-0, 64 points).
• In the 19 games when Tampa Bay has scored a single power-play goal, it went 12-5-2 to record 26 points.
• In the 31 games when it outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 19-9-3 (41 points).
• The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in 25 games, going 18-6-1 to record 37 points.

Sabres Splits and Trends

• The Sabres have a 34-19-6 record this season and are 6-6-12 in games that have required overtime.
• In the 14 games Buffalo has played that were decided by one goal, it racked up 18 points.
• This season the Sabres scored only one goal in six games and they finished 0-5-1 in those matchups.
• Buffalo has six points (3-7-0) when scoring two goals this season.
• The Sabres have scored three or more goals 40 times, earning 67 points from those matchups (31-4-5).
• This season, Buffalo has scored a lone power-play goal in 22 games has a record of 13-5-4 in those matchups.
• When outshooting its opponent this season, Buffalo is 12-8-2 (26 points).
• The Sabres' opponents have had more shots in 37 games. The Sabres finished 22-11-4 in those contests (48 points).

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Team Stats Comparison

Lightning vs. Sabres Game Time and TV Channel

• When: Saturday, February 28, 2026 at 7 p.m. ET
• TV Channel: ESPN+
• Live Stream: Watch this game on ESPN+
• Where: Benchmark International Arena in Tampa, Florida

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