Well what do we have here? A pre-Thanksgiving Locks blog?! Indeed. What you thought that a couple down weeks would hold me back? Not a chance. I have retooled some things on the back end, did some meditating and self reflection, and I’m ready to hop right back on with this weekend’s slate of games. Let’s feast!
Iowa @ Nebraska Under 26.5 points- I need a win and where should I look for a guaranteed W to get me on the board? An Iowa under. These things have been a cash cow and we’ve been avoiding it for too long. Iowa unders have hit with ease in 5 straight weeks. And here come the Cornhuskers, who struggle to get to 20 on a weekly basis themselves. Ridiculously low total, plug your nose and take it. Big 10 defensive battle on Black Friday, where punters reign supreme…Under 26.5 points, lock it up!
Florida +6.5 vs FSU- I was preparing to take Florida in this spot for the past month, now you tell me Jordan Travis is out for the game and the emotional air has been sucked out of the room, and what do you expect me to do? Of course I’m taking Florida. FSU is prime for an upset, and that was the case before the injury. Look, I respect this rivalry too much to just assume that because one team has been bad all year, they can’t miraculously show up and ruin the other team’s season. Plus, the Gators can pound the rock with Trevor Etienne, so that’ll help lighten the load for Max Brown @ QB. The Noles have been winning games because they don’t turn the ball over, #1 in CFB in that regard, but that’s asking a lot of Tate Rodemaker to keep that up. I think the Gators pull the upset here but I’ll take the points. Lock it up!
Commanders +12.5 @ Cowboys- Hard to fade the Cowboys here but this number’s inflated. The Cowboys have back to back wins now where they have just smothered their competition. But that was against Tommy DeVito in his first NFL start and Bryce Young, who looks completely lost out there. The Commanders have an actual offense, and while I fully expect Sam Howell to be sacked 15x in this game…I also think their playmakers will make an aggressive defense pay a few times. Divisional matchup with a # over 10. Gotta take it, Commanders +11 on Turkey Day. Lock it up!
Jags ML (-125) @ Texans- I am not messing around with the spread here. I usually don’t go cop out with the ML, but the spread is 1.5 so I’ll allow myself some grace. The smart money has to be coming in on Jacksonville here because this line keeps creeping towards them and I’m all in on this Jags team this week, so I love to see it. Love the revenge factor, the Jags lost a bad one earlier in the year to this Texans team, tough to beat a team twice. Plus, Jacksonville plays much better when they’re not at home. 4-0 in away games this year and 2-0 in International games. Its Duval County that trips them up. The Texans are a great story but this one’s for the division and I’m gonna take the better overall team here. Jags money line, lock it up!
Bucs @ Colts Over 43.5 points- Love the total here. Two of the worst defenses in the NFL going head to head. Bottom 10 in the NFL in PPG allowed. And the Bucs specifically will let you go up and down the field on them, they rank 2nd to last in the NFL in yards per game allowed. Meanwhile, you have the Colts coming off a bye, well rested, dual running backs to contend with. Love the spider-man meme quality at the QB position, I could see Baker and Garnder Minshew trying to out gunsling the other. Colts last 5 games, averaging 30ppg. This game’s going over 43.5. Lock it up!
Bills +3.5 @ Eagles- The Philly fade continues on In The Zone! Eventually, we have to get this one right. This Eagles team has flirted with disaster for weeks and a combination of several factors – including their own impressive play – has led them to win almost all of their games. But they are not perfect and eventually everyone gets exposed. This is a bad spot for them, coming off a highly emotional win, short week, taking on a Bills team that has a renewed sense of confidence with Joe Brady calling plays for that offense. I think the Bills find a way to put to Philadelphia in this one. Happy to take them at over a field goal. Bills +3.5, lock it up!
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