We are weathering the storm! After a hot start to the season, I have been slipping. 5-7-1 over the last 2 weeks. You would think I would’ve lost my confidence by now, but no, I’m feeling as good as ever. Its either my best quality or my worst, and I have a feeling I’m about to find out this weekend. Florida has its own sportsbook now, vibes are high, and its time to make some money!
On the season, still above 50%. 30-27-4 on the year. That’s good enough for 53%. Just barely above sea level.
(all of these line generated by the Hard Rock Sportsbook @ 1:20pm)
Oklahoma State -2.5 @ UCF- Until these bets stop printing money, I’m going to take it every time. It is amazing to me how much these sportsbooks value UCF, they simply have not proven they can hang against Big 12 competition, especially Big 12 competition that can run the football, and wouldn’t you know it – Oklahoma State isn’t just good at it, they’re the best. Ollie Gordon. Have you ever watched this guy run the ball? He’s laughably good. Size, speed, elusiveness – his bag is full. UCF will be able to put up points on Oklahoma State but at the end of the day, UCF’s biggest vulernerability will be exposed in this one. Cowboys -2.5, lock it up!
Miami +14.5 @ FSU- The Hurricanes have been a rollercoaster ride this year but outside of last week against NC State, they’ve either won or been in every game they’ve played this year. We all look back on that Georgia Tech debacle and hold that over their heads, but that was a game they should’ve won. They kept it within 10 against UNC, they beat Clemson, they beat Texas A&M. This Miami team isn’t bad, they’re just disappointing. And the line on this game reflects Miami being a bad team, I just cant get behind that. This is a classic rivalry game spot where FSU’s season is on the line every time they play – and Miami’s playing with house money. I’ll take the Canes to keep it close against a Noles team that probably plays pretty tight in this one. +14.5, lock it up!
Bengals -6.5 vs Texans- CJ Stroud just played the game of his life against a Bucs team that is so poorly coached, its almost hard to wrap your head around it. That game was also in Houston last week, where CJ Stroud has been far more effective. CJ Stroud threw 5 touchdown passes last week. He’s only thrown 3 away from Houston all year. His QB rating plummets away from home, can’t explain it, but it’s a thing. Cincinnati is just not the team you want to run into right now. They’ve won 4 straight. Wins over the Seahawks, 49ers, and Bills in that span. Their defense is really underrated too, they’ve allowed 20 or less in 4 straight games. And get this- Joe Burrow, in his career, 20-3-1 ATS against non-divisional opponents. Bengals win and cover the #, lock it up!
Jags +3.5 vs 49ers- This is a simple case of the wrong team is favored here. The Jags have been the better team and its not in some fictitious way, they’re really good. Very well coached, strong on defense, star QB. The Jags are for real and they’re facing a 49ers team that’s truly on the struggle bus right now. They’ve lost 3 straight, Brock Purdy looks like he’s getting exposed a bit. But this isn’t about betting against the Niners, I think they’ll bounce back at some point. I just expect this to be a low scoring, defensive game, where I get the home team with the better QB at over a FG, its great value. Also, Purdy on the road – not as good at getting the cover – just 2-5 ATS when away from SF. Jags cover, lock it up!
Cowboys -17.5 vs Giants- I couldn’t think of a worse position to be in if you are the New York Giants than this one right here. I’ve learned my lesson. Dallas at home, off a loss, is a juggernaut. This season, in their first home game following a loss, they are winning by an average margin of 29ppg. Oh, and I guess now is a good time to mention a guy by the name of TOMMY DeVITO is playing QB for the Giants. I’m sure he’s a fine Italian man, but he’s about to be driven into the ground time and time again. I honestly feel bad for the guy. The Giants have failed to surpass 10 points in a game 5x already this season and I don’t see how they get there in this one. Cowboys -17.5, lock it up!
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