Redemption time! Like any great super-hero story, there’s the origin, the success, and then the fall…only to be rebuilt. Well, this is a rebuilding week for me as I fly through Metropolis, cashing tickets. 2-5 last week. Gross. Took my overall season win % down from 63 to 55%. Still good, but not where we need to be. 25-20-3 on the season.
Gotta have amnesia in this moment and just bury my head in the prep and make the right call on these games. Let’s make some picks!
West Virginia +7 @ UCF- What is this line? UCF has done nothing to prove they should be favored against anyone in the Big 12 yet, let alone by 7. West Virginia isn’t all that good, but they’re not awful. They’re a 4-3 team who has been in every game this year. Even that first game against Penn State, they hung with ‘em on the road for 3 and half quarters. And you’ll love this…the way to attack UCF is to commit to the run, well only 5 teams in CFB are more committed than the Mountaineers. WV runs the ball @ the 6th highest rate in the country. Big 12 teams covering vs UCF when UCF is favored until I see otherwise. Lock it up.
Packers +1.5 vs Vikings- Every week there’s a honey-trap pick that the casual bettor loses money on, this week, that team is the Vikings. They are coming off a prime-time win, in front of the country, stand alone, against the 49ers. Kirk Cousins flashing his gaudy necklace, everyone loves them. Here’s the thing. They still stink. Bad teams win games. And that’s what I’m banking on here, because the Packers are also a bad team. This is not a bet on GB though, it’s a bet against Minnesota. Underdogs who win in prime time and then have a road game on a short week almost always disappoint. Also, teams who played SF the week prior, since last season, 5-16 ATS. Packers cover, lock it up!
Titans +3 vs Falcons- Plug your nose pick of the week! No one in the world wants to bet the Titans right now. They’re platooning QB’s, they just traded Kevin Byard, and their whole team is on the trade block. So my question is, why hasn’t this line shifted more? Someone knows something. And beyond that, this is just a good matchup for the Titans when you dig beneath the surface narratives. The Falcons have to establish the run or they’ve got zero chance to generate offense. Well, that’s the strength of this Titans team. The Titans are a top 5 rush defense in their own building. Tennessee wins and covers, do not pick the Falcons in survivor – lock it up!
Commanders +7 vs Eagles- Home divisional underdog, sign me up. And we have a really recent example of how this matchup can go, these 2 played each other, in Philly, back in week 4. It took a field goal in OT for the Eagles to get the win. The Commanders just matchup really well with the Eagles for whatever reason, they beat them in prime-time the 2nd time they played last year too. Philly just doesn’t look quite right to me. They did not deserve to win last week, but they got away with one. Commanders find a way to sneak in a cover here, lock it up!
Steelers +2.5 vs Jags- These two teams are red hot. Steelers have won 11 of their last 15. Jags have won 12 of their last 16. Great matchup. But the Jags need a bye in the worst way, they let Derek Carr go up and down the field on them last week, and if the Saints TE had caught the ball in the end zone, they would’ve lost on TNF. Pittsburgh has been impressive and their offense is actually getting better. Plus, Mike Tomlin as a home underdog, please. He covers 78% of the time in this situation, 78! And it could be a rain game. Total edge goes to Pittsburgh here. Lock it up!
Rams +6 @ Cowboys- This number feels to big for me. Who is Dallas to be a 6 point favorite against a good QB? I get that # when they play Daniel Jones but Matt Stafford will be able to move the ball. This defense is not the same without Trevon Diggs, and now you have to worry about Kupp and Puka. Also, total coaching mismatch, I’ll take Sean McVay over Mike McCarthy every day of the week. Stafford is 4-2-1 against the spread this season, I still think he doesn’t get the respect he deserves, I expect this game to be close. Rams +6, Lock it up!
Strong considerations: Dolphins -9.5, Georgia -14.5, Utah +6.5, Kentucky +3.5
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