Coming in hot! Things really could not have gone any better last week, had I just simply avoided the emotional bet of Miami +2.5, it would’ve been picture perfect. But hey, I’ll take 6-1 every single week for the rest of my life, no issues there. Overall record on the season: 17-10-2 – that’s 63% against the spread, and 3% above my goal for the season. Let’s get to it!
OU +5.5 vs Texas- The final Red River Rivalry game as members of the Big 12, this should be absolutely electric. Here’s my spin on this…Texas is getting way too much credit for what they’ve done to this point in the season. Don’t get me wrong, this team is really good…but all I’ve heard all week is how Oklahoma hasn’t played anyone yet. Let’s review what Texas has done. A win over Rice, Wyoming, Baylor with a backup QB, and Kansas with a back up QB…Oh and Alabama. And they are getting way too much love for that Bama win, I don’t know if you’ve noticed, but this isn’t the same Bama. Texas is good. But this OU team is solid from top to bottom. Dillon Gabriel is orchestrating one of the leagues best offenses and their defense ranks 4th in the nation in PPG allowed, this is not the same team that lost 49-0 a year ago. Revenge is on the mind for the Sooners…BOOMER SOONER +5.5! Lock it up.
Jags +5.5 vs Bills- Believe me, I do not enjoy going up against the moving freight train that is the Buffalo Bills – but – I think this is a tremendous spot for the Jags. We still don’t have any sort of statistical sample of what happens when 1 team stays in London and the other travels in, this is the first time that’s ever happened…so I’m gonna play the common sense card. That’s a long flight, that’s a big change, a lot of distraction, and for the Bills in particular – they’re coming off a big emotional win @ home. They have a million reasons to come out and struggle in this one. Also, Josh Allen has not had back to back games without a turnover since 2020, he was clean last week, I’m expecting a bit of regression here. I’ll take the Jags in London again – lock it up!
Steelers +4 vs Ravens- Biggest no brainer bet of the week. I told you last week when I took Baltimore, AFC North Divisional dogs cover like maniacs. However profitable that’s been in the division, multiply it by 100 when it’s the Steelers/Ravens. In fact, the underdog has covered 11 straight times in this rivalry…11! And, how about this? This Steelers team is rotten but the Ravens still have injuries they’re dealing with and I think they might be a little over inflated after beating up a rookie back up QB last week. Steelers keep it close, lock it up!
Cardinals +3 vs Bengals- This one just feels right. The Cardinals are one of the scrappiest teams in the NFL, they’ve been in every game they’ve played in this year, even last week…they were toe to toe with the 49ers late in that game last Sunday. Josh Dobbs really doesn’t get rattled. Meanwhile, Joe Burrow is just not right. The Bengals are currently dead last in offensive efficiency, Burrow’s QB rating right now – lower than Daniel Jones, Zach Wilson, Ryan Tannehill, Kenny Pickett – I’m talking the who’s who of bad QB play and he’s worse than all of them. The Bengals should not be road favorites here, Cardinals +3, lock it up!
Vikings +4 vs Chiefs- Don’t let the 1-3 record fool you, the Vikings aren’t actually all that bad and they specialize in this sort of game. 1 score games vs really good teams. Now that we have a sample size, I think its easier to wrap our heads around what these teams actually are – Minnesota is 1-3, but their 3 losses are to the Bucs (3 point loss), Eagles (6 point loss), and the Chargers (4 point loss) – those are all pretty good teams. One was on a short week and one was on the road. This is a 4pm Sunday home game for Kirk Cousins – not quite as profitable as he’s been in the 1pm window @ home, but I expect their offense to give KC fits. Vikings plus the points, lock it up!
Cutting room floor: Falcons -2, UCF -1.5, Georgia -14.5, Mizzou +5.5, Cowboys +3.5
Listen to my locks and explanation behind each pick in the podcast below!
Photo: Brian Bahr / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images