I have been slamming away on these locks like a mason for the past 5 days, ready to deliver the goods to you. Quite the slate to comb through this weekend, tough to narrow it down, but I think you are going to like these…you definitely like them if they’re winners. Before we get to it - Let’s review how we’ve done. Last week, just slightly above .500 – 4-3-1 was the finish.
On the season: 9-6-1 that is a win rate of 60% which is exactly where I want to be. So let’s pad these stats!
Oregon -21 vs Colorado- This is 2 weeks in a row for me fading this Colorado team. But you should know, I’ve bet every Colorado game this season and I’m 3-0 ATS. This is where the bottom likely falls out. I’ve learned a lot about this Oregon team over the course of the week and they are GOOD. Oregon’s pass defense is ranked 19th in the country, 2nd in offensive efficiency, passing offense 7th, rushing offense 11th, and they’re going up against a Colorado defense that ranks in the 100’s. Plus, I think this Travis Hunter injury is a really big deal, he impacts both sides of the ball, and you can’t replace that. How about this fun fact I dug up – when two ranked conference opponents meet and one side is favored by 20 or more, the favored team has covered the spread 14 out of 18 times. Oregon is the better team, Colorado is historically overvalued, Bo Nix and the Ducks run away with it. -21, lock it up!
Notre Dame +3 vs Ohio State- Notre Dame stadium is going to be rockin’ on Saturday night. This is such an interesting matchup. But I’m going to trust the better QB here, Sam Hartman is a grizzled vet at this point in college, he doesn’t shrink in the big moments, so I feel like I can trust him here. Plus, his run game is tremendous, so I expect a balanced attack in this one. Audric Estime is averagind 8.3 YPC. This is the first big road start for Kyle McCord @ Ohio State and this guy is not CJ Stroud. Yes, they have great receivers, but if your QB is peeing down his leg, it likely doesn’t matter. I think more than anything though, this is a bet against public perception. Ohio State is living off of resume right now and not production. This program is 1-8 against the spread as a favorite in their last 9 vs ranked competition. Give me the Fighting Irish to possibly win and at least cover, lock it up!
Texans +9.5 @ Jags- Someone please explain to me what Jacksonville has done to deserve being a 9 point favorite in this game? Was it because of the game they almost lost in Indy to open the season? Or was it the loss to the Chiefs last week where they put up 9 points? This offense is not humming yet, the defense is okay but not great, and the Texans have something brewing offensively. CJ Stroud was over 384 yards last week, 2 touchdowns, this team has real juice. Now, I don’t love that Derek Stingley is out, their best DB, but I still think the offense is good enough to keep the +9.5 alive throughout the course of the game. These teams met last year in Jacksonville, week 5, the Jags favored by 7 against Davis Mills! And they lost 13-6. Also, worth noting, T-Law is 0-4 in his pro career as a favorite. Texans +9.5, lock it up!
Commanders +6.5 vs Bills- I’m buying this Commanders team. I know @ 2-0 they look like an obvious fraud, they’ve taken down the Cardinals and the Broncos, not exactly a gauntlet. But I like what I’m seeing. Sam Howell can sling it, Eric Bienemy is calling a good game, and Ron Rivera has made a career of building off of this sort of momentum. Also, Josh Allen and the Bills riding a little too high off that blow out last week against the Raiders, that’s what they do at home off bad Josh Allen games…but this one is in Washington, and against a team that has the type of d-line that usually frustrates Allen. Love this pick, give me Washington +6.5.
Broncos +6.5 @ Dolphins- It pains me to do this, but I know good and well when my team is overvalued…and this is that moment. The look ahead line on this game was Phins -3.5. Have they really done enough in 2 games to earn 3 more points against the spread? Tua led a great comeback vs a bad Chargers defense, 1 score win. The defense held up against the Pats who have zero offensive weapons, 1 score win. The Broncos can actually move the ball and I still don’t trust this Dolphins defense. Also, Russell Wilson and Sean Payton – tremendous ATS after 2 straight losses. Both over 60% in their careers. Give me the Broncos to cover, lock it up!
Bucs +5 vs Eagles- MNF action so we’ll have to wait beyond the weekend to see this one cash but I’ve already placed the bet (BettorEdge.com promo code: BEATBRANDON). The Eagles secondary is ravaged with injuries and I think that could be a real factor here. I can’t believe I’m about to say this, but Baker has been pretty damn good these last 2 weeks. I’m sure the bottom will fall out eventually, but it hasn’t happened yet. Maybe he’s finally accepting what he is in the NFL. Also, this is very matchup based…the Eagles love to run the football, they’re great at it. But the Bucs are great at stopping it. Tampa is going to force Hurts to beat them with his arm, and he just doesn’t look right to me yet this season. Happy to back the Bucs in prime time. Lock it up!
Photo: Ali Gradischer / Getty Images Sport / Getty Images