Let’s recap how I did last week to properly set the stage: Falcons came through -3.5 vs Carolina, Browns +2.5 – buried the Bengals, Texas +7.5 @ Bama, never in doubt, Colorado -3 vs Nebraska…cake walk. Steelers +2.5 at home against the Niners, we just won’t talk about that one. 4-1 last week. 5-3 on the season.
That was until last night where I thought I had an easy early W with the Eagles covering that -6 that I locked up on yesterday’s show…but no, Kirk Cousins had to drive the field and score a pointless touchdown at the end of the game. Thankfully, it didn’t cost me a loss, but it did cost me a win, and now we have our first PUSH on the scorecard. No harm, no foul. Let’s get the week going!
Colorado State +24 @ Colorado- This saddens me to do this but you got to take the value when it presents itself. I’ve been on Colorado these first 2 games, backing them has been very kind to me, but its time to hop off the hype train for just a moment. Now look, I’m not going to sit here and pretend like I know anything about Colorado State, but what I do know is A) This is a rivalry game and B) This is a major lookahead spot for Colorado. The Buffs take on Oregon and USC in the next 2 weeks, you think they’re truly 100% focused on this opponent? They’ve now won 2 highly emotional games and have their biggest games ahead of them in the next couple weeks, this is look-ahead to the max and it’s the wrong opponent to do that against. Colorado State is also coming off a bye here, so they’ve had 2 weeks to get ready for this game. Give me the Rams +24, lock it up!
Bama -32 @ USF- I'll keep this one short and sweet. Nick Saban off a loss is basically unstoppable. Nick Saban off a loss against a G5 team who just got gutted in the portal, I almost feel bad for USF that they will get the wrath of the Crimson Tide disappointment from last week. How about this stat to make it all that much sweeter -- Since 2021, Bama has beaten group of 5 schools by an average of 48ppg. Not worried in the slightest that this is a "road game", I am almost certain there will be more Bama fans than USF fans...I know, hot take. New QB, old QB, no QB. Don't care in this one. Alabama in a blow out, lock it up!
Chiefs -3 @Jaguars- Still no word on Travis Kelce but it looks like he might suit up, if he does, I love this bet even more, but I’m taking it either way. The Jags were lucky to escape last week with a win, they tried to hand Indy that game and because the Colts are young and dumb, they didn’t know how to take it. The Chiefs however, completely different opponent, you give me Mahomes off a loss, Andy Reid with extra time to prepare, and a tight spread…Chiefs are the only the way to play this. Mahomes is 19-6-1 ATS when favored by 3-points or less. Chris Jones is back as well. Love this spot for KC, -3, lock it up!
Falcons +1 vs Packers- Atlanta won last week. You wouldn’t know it, because all the attention is on their competition this week, everyone loves loves loves the Packers. Green Bay is catching way too much hype here. GB played a perfect game last week against a franchise that they’ve owned since the 90’s…I’m not surprised. Jordan Love faced no pressure whatsoever, that’ll change in this game. Atlanta’s defense is much improved from last year, they spent a lot of money to get better, last week, they were a complete no fly zone – zero pass plays of 15 yards or more surrendered. Also, Desmond Ridder 26-0 when playing at home in college and the NFL. Give me the Dirty Birds +1, lock it up!
Seahawks +5.5 @ Lions- You know I love me some Lions football but what I love even more is capitalzing on overreactions. And that’s what we have here. The Seahawks were pounded into submission from the Rams last week and the Lions won in Arrowhead. Classic overhype situation to once again fade. My question about Detroit is, were they that good or did KC play that poorly? They really should’ve lost that game, so we shouldn’t be overly impressed with them just yet. And Pete Carroll as a dog off a loss, remarkable in his coaching career, over 60% ATS when that’s the case. Give me the Seahawks to keep it within 5, lock it up!
Texans +1 vs Colts- Anthony Richardson looked really good last week. But I’ve been down this road before. This is the Anthony Richardson experience, he’ll look amazing one week, and average the next, and I’m fairly confident this is going to be a really rough week for him. Think about it, this is a guy who has struggled with accuracy and reading defenses and this will be the first time in his NFL career where a coach has game film on him that he gets to use against Richardson. And that coach is DeMeco Ryans. Good luck with that. The Texans lost last week, but their defense was pretty fierce, they pressured Lamar Jackson really well and hit him 7x in the backfield. Houston’s home opener, CJ Stroud’s first game jitters out of the way. Love the Texans here, lock it up!
Bengals -3.5 vs Ravens- Joe Burrow was rough around the edges last week but I’m going to take him to bounce back here. Last week I faded the Bengals because of his poor history vs Cleveland, but this is a reverse of that. He’s owned Baltimore as of late. In their last 5 meetings, Burrow and the Bengals are 4-1 vs Baltimore, winning by an average of 15.5 points in those 4 games. Plus, Baltimore is banged up big time. JK Dobbins has hit IR, Marlon Humphrey hasn’t been practicing, Ronnie Stanley is in danger of missing the game, and we still don’t have word on Mark Andrews. This is just a bad spot for Baltimore and I think they looked really sloppy in week 1. If Cincy gets it together at all this week, it’ll be a blowout. Give me Joe Cool and Company -3.5. Lock it up!
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