All roads lead to this! Stone-Cold Locks. Its been a long week, I’m dog tired, but I have just enough in the tank to deliver the goods this week. Full blown honesty, I could’ve delivered this on Tuesday, I’ve had these spreads circled for a hot minute. So, let’s get to it!
1-2 record last week thanks to that Satanic Spawn James Franklin. Oh well, we press on.
Colorado -3 vs Nebraska- I’m coming in hot! Every analytics, wanna-be pro bettor is going to tell you that you have to fade Colorado after that emotional program altering win. Ok. Have fun with that. Every year, there’s a team that Vegas can’t catch up with – happens in every sport. There’s an “it” factor that can’t be quantified…and the Buffs have it. Talent, momentum, and just an overall vibe. Colorado breaks the mold of conventional wisdom. Believe what your eyes saw last week. And oh by the way, you get to fade Nebraska in the process. Give me the Prime-Time Buffaloes -3 at home. Lock it up!
Texas +7.5 @ Bama- One of my favorite motivations in all of sports is that of revenge. Its such a strong motivating factor for players, for coaches, and it gives teams something to rally around. Well, Texas has that. They should’ve beat this Alabama team last year, but their QB got hurt, calls didn’t go their way, some Bryce Young heroics (who was the 1st overall pick btw) and they lost. They’ve had this one circled since that moment and honestly, I think they might be just as good as Alabama top to bottom from a talent standpoint. I know I like their QB better. Jalen Milroe still hasn’t proven he can throw or hang onto the ball – major fumble issues when he saw time last year. Tough to go into Tuscaloosa and win, but I’m getting 7.5 points, I’ll take it, gladly. Texas +7.5, lock it up!
Browns +2.5 vs Bengals- Fishy, fishy, fishy…Isn’t it odd that Joe Burrow is now trending towards playing and the line hasn’t budged an inch. That’s because the books know, if they move this line too much, they are going to get hammered by professional bettors, and they’re going to lose money. The Browns simply matchup well with the Bengals, even with Cincy at full health. Burrow is 28-15-1 against the NFL in his career. He’s 1-4 vs the Browns. I think Cleveland pulls the upset, but I’ll take the points as a cushion. Browns +2.5, lock it up!
Falcons -3.5 vs Panthers- The Panthers matched up really well with Atlanta last year, and it didn’t even matter who was at QB. The Panthers covered both games in 2022 vs ATL and they won the first one straight up. But, that was last year. Sunday sees the debut of a rookie QB, horrible trends for 1st year QB’s making their first start (7-19 ATS for #1 overall picks making their first start). And we’ve got a new coach taking over for Carolina as well. So new QB, new system, week 1, divisional opponent. All signs point to a major smash spot for the Atlanta Falcons. I think there’s a chance this one gets ugly. Happy to take the Falcons -3.5. Lock it up!
Steelers +2.5 vs 49ers- I love what I saw from Pittsburgh in the preseason. Kenny Pickett had the best QB rating of any QB that played in those meaningless games, so I don’t want to overrate it, but I just like the fact that this offense is already in a groove. We know the Steelers can bring it defensively with TJ Watt and Alex Highsmith. And we know the fans are going to bring it with the terrible towels waving for all 4 quarters. Here’s the thing, I’m very impressed with what Brock Purdy showed us last year. But, if you go back and look at that run he had to end the season, he never really faced an elite pass rush while on the road. Not until he met Philly, and we saw what happened there. People will bet the Niners because they’re the better team, but I think in this situation, they’re going to look pretty similar. Take the points. Steelers +2.5, lock it up!
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