Topsy-turvy couple weeks for the Locks. The month of October was historically good for me. November was even. December has been on the brink of disastrous. 2-4 last week. Overall record still excellent, 55-38-2. Let’s get you some winners heading into the Christmas/New Year’s break. I’ve got a Santa bag full of locks here that extend all the way out to next week, let’s do it.
Eagles (+6) @ Dallas- What’s the thing we always say about the Eagles? They’re good at everything. Jalen Hurts is amazing and I’m sure there will be moments in this game where he is missed, but this team is more than just him. The Eagles have the 7th ranked defense in the league, #1 offensive line, a pair of stud receivers, and they probably have the coaching advantage too. Dak has turned into a turnover machine and this is the wrong team for him to confront given his issues taking care of the ball. Philly has the most INT’s in the league this season with 15. Eagles have all the value here. +6, lock it up.
Steelers (-2.5) hosting Raiders- The back drop of the Franco Harris ceremony at halftime is a nice narrative to follow and its just more of a reason to feel good about backing the Steelers but really the Steelers are just a better football team. The Raiders were lucky to beat the Pats last week with Jakobi Myers committing the dumb play of the century, meanwhile the Steelers went on the road and owned a surging Panthers squad with Mitch Trubisky playing QB. Now it looks like they’re getting Kenny Pickett back, love the Steelers to win and cover here, lock it up.
Phins (-3.5) hosting the Packers- Miami desperately needs some home cooking after they dropped 3 straight on the road. Just playing in Miami is reason enough to like this team, they’re 5-1 in South Florida, just a completely different team, and for whatever reason – Rodgers has always struggled in this State. The thing that I think is flying under the radar in this game more than anything is the fact that Miami found a run game last week, and they go up against a Packers defense that ranks dead last against the run. They’ve got good corners, but no one can cover Tyreek Hill, so I’m not sure that matchup advantage even matters in this one. Give me the Phins -3.5. Lock it up!
Seahawks (+10) @ KC- I am sick and tired of betting on Seattle, this has become a one-sided relationship, all take / no give. However, I can’t overlook this giant spread. Seattle can put up points when they face softer defenses and that’s exactly what KC is. This is not the 49ers who completely stifled Geno Smith. Geno, in his career has been a cover machine. Consider this, the Seahawks haven’t covered in 5 weeks, and Geno is still 25-21 in his career ATS. The Chiefs are having a hard time covering spreads this season, just 4-10 against the spread. I think Geno will be able to make enough plays to keep them competitive. Give me the Hawks one last time, lock it up.
Pats (+3) hosting the Bengals- This is no fun for anyone. But this is how you make money in the betting world, its not pretty, but you’ve got to lay $ on stinky/flea-ridden dogs. The Patriots lost last week in the most embarrassing fashion, so un-Belichick like. This team has to come out inspired after a game like that. On the other side, the Bengals were about to get blown out by the terrible Bucs until Brady and company handed them the ball with good field position 3 times in a matter of 5 minutes. Bengals are over-do for a stinker. Pats +3, lock it up.
FSU (-9.5) vs OU in the Cheez-It Bowl- This FSU team is all fired up to play in this game. They’ve got NFL guys still locked in and ready to play in this one, that’s usually a good sign. Bowl games largely come down to who wants it more, FSU wants it bad, they want that 10th win on the season, and they’re rolling right now. Jordan Travis is playing at a Heisman level, their defense has stiffened up – they’ve only given up more than 17 points once in their 5 game win streak, and they go up against an OU team that lost interest in the season before Halloween. The Sooners gave up 51 to Texas Tech at the end of the year. There’s a reason this spread is so large even though we’ve got 2 power brands squaring off. I think the Noles make this one ugly. Seminoles -9.5, lock it up.
Picks I like- Lions -2.5, Bears +8, Vikings -4, Kansas State +6, Tulane +2.5, TCU +7.5, Georgia -6.5