Stone-Cold Locks of the Week are here, under the tree, all wrapped up, like little holiday presents…Last week, not exactly my best outing. Crushed CFB conference title games with a 2-1 record BUT the NFL got me. 1-5 picking NFL games last week. 3-6 overall. Bringing my record to 51-31-2. Still beyond stellar, but I can’t continue this slide I’m on. Time to get back on track!
All NFL today.
Giants (+7) vs Eagles- Philly is rolling right now, so this isn’t the easiest play in the world. But you don’t come to me for easy, you come to me for correct. And the market has simply gone too wild on the Eagles, they’re coming off a dominant performance against the Titans, but divisional games are a different animal entirely, and the Giants are the type of team that wants to drag you into the mud. Jalen Hurts in his short career, 1-4 ATS on the road vs NFC East opponents. Look for the Giants to keep it close. G-Men +7. Lock it up.
Titans (-3.5) vs Jags- The Jags looked like they were hitting another gear after that comeback win vs Baltimore…what they were actually doing was tricking us all into believing they were something they are not. A good team. The Jags are terrible, I think Trevor is getting better, but this defense can’t be trusted – certainly not against Derrick Henry. The receivers have dropped more passes than anyone else in the NFL, and Travis Etienne hasn’t been productive in a month. Fun fact, Trevor Lawrence has failed to win and/or cover each time he’s played Mike Vrabel’s Titans. The Jags are decent @ home, they can’t take this clown show on the road. Titans -3.5, lock it up.
Browns (+6) @ Bengals- Battle for Ohio here. Cincy is rolling right now, but a little bit like the Eagles, are we almost getting too excited about them? Let last night’s Raiders/Rams game be a guide for you in this one. One team red-hot, the other breaking in a new QB, with question marks all over the place…Rams win. The NFL makes no sense sometimes. Hot teams cool off and cold teams win games. Add to the general NFL randomness, Joe Burrow has been awful against the Browns thus far in his career. This should be a cold weather, hard fought game. I think the Browns make the Bengals fight for it. Give me the Browns +6. Lock it up.
Niners (-3.5) vs Bucs- San Francisco hasn’t played a true road game since Oct. 30th. Crazy. Teams that get to just sit back and play home games have a serious rest advantage against their competition. But that’s just a nice little nugget to consider…what this game really comes down to, is how the hell are the Bucs going to score on the 49ers? Their offense can’t move the football. They’re old, slow, and clunky, with bad o-line play. SF’s defense ranks 1st in points per game, yards per game, yards per rush, 1st downs surrendered…the Bucs are screwed. SF -3.5. Lock it up.
Lions (-2) vs Vikings- This line makes no sense on the surface. Major trap here if you’re thinking the sportsbooks are handing out free-money with the Vikings as underdogs to a sub .500 team. You gotta watch the games. The Lions can play. Jared Goff looks better right now than he has at any point in his career. DeAndre Swift is healthy, St. Brown is playing out of his mind, they have one of the best o-lines in football, and they still have a secret weapon to deploy in Jameson Williams. The Vikings are good, but they luck out game after game, that method won’t last. 9 of their 10 wins have been 1 score games. Lions win and cover here. Lock it up.
Picks I like- Ravens +2.5, Jets +10, Phins/Chargers OVER 52.5, Chiefs -9.5, Seahawks -3.5
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