The culmination of a week’s worth of work lands us right here, right now. Stone Cold Locks of the Week, predictions with convictions and some #’s to back it up. Rolling right now too…
27-15-1 on the season. Let’s get some more W’s.
Giants (+3) @ Jax- I haven’t been able to put my finger on it all week. I do not understand how the Jags are favored in this spot, this team doesn’t know how to win. Conversly, the Giants seem to find a new way every week. Are they getting lucky? Maybe. But I also think that at some point you have to buy in a little, they’re 5-1, that’s really hard to pull off in the NFL by accident. Also, the Jags are 8-35 ATS against NFC teams since 2012. To make matters worse…they’ve lost outright 18 straight times to \ NFC teams since 2018. G-Men +3, lock it up.
Seahawks (+6.5) @ Chargers- I don’t think the Chargers look right. I know they’ve won 3 straight but to me, they haven’t looked like the better team in a game they’ve played since week 1 against the Raiders. Last 3 weeks, outplayed by Houston – pulled away at the end because of some bad decision making by Davis Mills. 2 weeks ago, barely squeaked one out against the Browns who couldn’t make a field goal to save their lives, and then last Thursday against the broncos – that game was neck and neck all the way through and they needed a field goal deep into overtime to get it done. Here’s the thing…Seattle is better than all of those teams. Would not shock me if Seattle wins, but I’ll safely take the +6.5. Lock it up.
Texans (+7.5) @ LV- I said it weeks ago, I will be betting the Texans a lot moving forward and here they are again getting no respect with this spread. This is why they’re good value. I’m sure they’ll find a way to lose, but in what world should this Raiders team be a 7 point favorite against anyone? What have they done? The Texans are 4-1 against the spread this year, and why? Because they can run, they play hard, and they make just enough big plays to stay in games. Look for the Texans to keep winning us $$, lock it up.
Jets/Broncos UNDER 39- I want to take the Jets here like everyone else, but I think you’re asking a lot of the Jets to win 3 straight games and 2 straight on the road. This team is still young and they’re going to have stinkers. But, I also can’t put my hard earned American dollars on the broncos. This under though…all day. Neither team can score and both defenses look elite. Recipe for a 12-10 game. Lock it up.
SMU (+3) vs Cincinnati- Trap spot. I’m telling you – either Cincy or UCF are slipping up this weekend, and I have a feeling it won’t be the Knights. This is not the Cincy team from 2021. The Bearcats struggled to put away Tulsa, Indiana, and USF. Plus, the Bearcats have struggled to run the ball recently, which is supposed to be their calling card on offense…they rank around 90th in the country. And how about this, Luke Fickell 3-10 ATS as a road favorite in conference. Give me the Mustangs, lock it up.
LSU (-2.5) vs Ole Miss- I’m not a Brian Kelly fan either but you have to snatch value where you see it and here we have some. Ole Miss is incredibly overrated, they’ve beat basically no one…their most impressive win was a tight game vs Kentucky where Will Levis got hurt at the end. Also, Brian Kelly might be the most profitable coach in CFB…Since 2005, Kelly is 36-14-2 ATS as a dog or a favorite of less than 3 points. Love getting a solid SEC team at home with a short #. Geaux Tigers. Lock it up.
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