The culmination of a week’s worth of work lands us right here, right now. Stone Cold Locks of the Week, I take great pride in my picks, I predict with conviction, and right now it is paying off big time.
23-14-1 on the season. Let’s see if I can keep this momentum flowing in the right direction.
Bills (-3) @ KC Chiefs- You’ve heard it all week. I’m not going to say anything here that hasn’t been said already, I just happen to agree with the general public on this one. The Bills are built for this. They were already built for this and all they’ve done since they lost in OT in the playoffs is sharpened their axe to be ready for this matchup. Let me remind you, when these 2 teams met in the regular season last year, it was in Arrowhead, and the Bills won 38-20. So its not like the Chiefs don’t lose at home. Buffalo needs this win more than the Chiefs do for mental reasons, I’m circling the wagons, Bills -3, lock it up.
Jets (+7.5) @ GB- There’s some terrific data that backs up how bad teams are when they fly back from London and don’t take the bye, makes sense, long travel, short week…all of that. Plus, are we sure the Packers are good? Last 3 weeks: Loss to the Giants, 3 point win against a 3rd string rookie QB, and a 2 point win against a skeleton crew of WR’s in Tampa. They’re not running well, passing well, and they’ve been gashed on the ground the last 2 weeks. And here come the Jets, feeling confident and spritely. I’d be shocked if they Jets won, but the Packers don’t deserve to be 7.5 point favs against a team that can score points. Jets +7.5, lock it up.
Falcons (+6) vs SF- 5-0 ATS. That’s all you need to know. The Falcons know how to cover some spreads and we love them for that. This week, they take on a 49ers team who fattened up on a cupcake a week ago in Carolina. The market loves them some SF, but let’s think about this – the Niners are on the road in back to back weeks, that’s a trouble spot, and Kyle Shanahan is a road favorite, also trouble…the Niners have a load of injuries on defense, Nick Bosa’s hurt, their o-line is hurt, and the Falcons stay in these games. Plus, Shanahan as a road favorite has been brutal historically. Falcons +6, lock it up.
Saints (+2) vs Bengals- I don’t know what the Bengals have done to warrant being 2 point road favorites against a decent Saints squad…other than the fact that they went to the Super Bowl last year, but remember folks, that was last year. This Cincy team is struggling to protect Joe Burrow, 18 on the year, that ranks 5th in the NFL. And the Saints can get after it. I’m hoping this is Andy Dalton and not Jameis but either way, I’m fading the Bengals, Saints +2, lock it up!
Oklahoma State @ TCU OVER 68.5- This will be a classic Big 12 points fest. Everything TCU does well on offense, OK State can’t stop on defense. And it works the opposite way too. TCU scores at will with Max Duggan @ QB, and Spencer Sanders looks like one of the best young QB’s in the country with Oklahoma State. They can’t make this number high enough honestly. For even more assurance, TCU ranks 130th in big plays allowed on defense, and OK State ranks 77th. But both are easily top 15 offenses in the country. Take the over, lock it up.
Picks I like but don’t love: Penn State +7, Gators -2.5, Seahawks +3, Bama -7, Kansas +9, and Giants +6.