STONE COLD LOCKS of the Week.
Very curious how this week goes. Steady progression each week, week 1 I was an atrocious 1-4, fast forward to last week and I was a tremendous 5-0-1. 18-12-1 on the season. This is a swing week, either we’re off to the races or the last 2 weeks were just mini-hot streaks. Only 1 way to find out, they’ll have to go out there and play the games, but I love love love some of these #’s. Let’s get it.
UNC (+3.5) @ Miami- I probably don’t need to tell you what a lack of a home field advantage Miami has, in fact, their QB Tyler Van Dyke already laid it out a couple weeks back. Don’t overthink this one, Miami is coming off back to back losses, on the road @ A&M and then in front of their home fans against Middle Tennessee State. This season is a lost cause, and they go up against a tough 4-1 UNC team that can put up points. They give up points too, but I think Drake Maye, the UNC QB is the difference in this one. UNC 3-0 their last 3 games against the U. Tar Heels +3.5, lock it up!
Bama (-23.5) home vs Texas A&M- This is the one we had circled on the calendar back in June. Now its here and it kind of feels like a dud. But this is the kind of spot where you want to back Nick Saban. Nick knows how to cover as a heavy favorite and he’s especially proficient in revenge spots. Since becoming the coach @ Bama, Saban has faced 15 opponents that he lost to the year prior, he’s 14-1 straight up in those games, and more importantly, 11-4 ATS in those games. Vintage Nick Saban beat down coming the way of Texas A&M. Bama -23.5, lock it up!
Texans (+7.5) @ Jags- Repeat after me, I don’t hate the Jags. I really don’t, I just don’t think they’ve earned being a 7.5 point favorite in division against a scrappy Texans team. I think we’re benefitting from the fact that the game vs Philly looked close last week for the Jags, but outside of the 1st quarter, they were dominated. And for the Texans, they had the Chargers on the ropes until Davis Mills threw a pick 6. So I think these teams are closer than the spread suggests. Keep this in mind, the Jags have only been favored 3 times since the start of 2020, this being #3, and all 3 have come against the Texans…the Jags lost the first 2 outright. Back Houston +7.5, lock it up.
Phins (-3) @ Jets- I might be walking into it here but I just don’t see a path for the Jets to make this much of a contest for 4 full quarters. Zach Wilson has struggled vs the blitz since becoming the Jets starter, that continued last week, but he benefited from a Steelers defense that’s without their best player. Last year, Zach Wilson ranked dead last in the NFL in “on target throw %” from a clean pocket (51%), and that # dropped to 27% when facing pressure. I need to see it for more than a quarter from Zach Wilson before I choose to not fade him in these spots…Oh, and, by the way…Teddy covers. 24-6 ATS on the road over the course of his career. Phins -3, lock it up.
Patriots (-3) hosting the Lions- This pains me as a Lions truther because if this pick comes true, then the Lions would drop to 1-4 and their hopes of being a sneaky playoff team might fly out the window…but, we bet with our heads and not with our hearts here. The Patriots are a better more well rounded team than the Lions, just a fact. Detroit has the top scoring offense in the NFL, but they also haven’t had to play much outdoors. In fact, all 4 of their games have been played inside a dome. 3 at home and once in Minnesota. I wouldn’t be surprised if that offense came crashing down to earth a bit, also, Goff vs Belichick hasn’t been pretty…I take you back to the SB a few years ago when he only mustered 3 points. I like this a whole lot more if Mac Jones plays, but either way, I’m waving the white flag on my precious Lions. Pats -3, lock it up.
Browns (+2.5) vs Chargers in Cleveland- Betting home dogs is mighty profitable in the NFL and this feels like a really good spot to back the home team. The Chargers were brutal against the run last season and this year, it doesn’t appear to be much better. Last 3 games, their defense has given up an average of 125 yards per game on the ground…do you think that improves against Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt? Ball control Browns find a way to cover, lock it up.
Eagles (1H -3.5) @ Arizona- I usually just bet full game lines but every once in a while an odd ball line stands out to me, and this is one of those times. The Eagles are 5.5 point favs in this game but for some reason that # spooks me, and I realized its because of Murray’s 2nd half magic. So, how do I bet the Eagles and avoid the 2nd half? 1st half line. Eagles 1st half points this season- 24, 24, 24, 20. Monster 1st half team. Meanwhile, on the other side- AZ sucks in the first half. The Cardinals have been outscored 66-16 in the first half of games this season. Eagles -3.5 1st half line. Lock it up!