Stone-Cold Locks of the week – and yes – last week did NOT go well. But, we’re playing the long game folks…this isn’t about over-reacting to a bad week. Time to knock one back, a little hair of the dog if you will. I honestly thought for a brief moment that I would come in here this week with maybe 2-3 locks at the most, kind of tuck my tail after a brutal weekend…but NO! There are so many games & numbers that I’m in love with.
Let's go...
1.OU (-18) home vs WV- My initial reaction to this line was to jump all over WV, but upon further review…that’s not the right play. OU is poised for a breakout game, they haven’t had it yet and they’re too talented to be held back much longer. I like Spencer Rattler, but its really this defense that has me charged up. The Sooners quietly have the best pass rush in the country and WV’s offensive line / shaky QB play is their achilles heel. Bad combo. OU with the breakout on Saturday night.
2.NC State (+10) hosting Clemson- I’m going to go counter to what I just said about OU. Clemson has yet to breakout but when I watch them, I see bigger/more unsolvable issues. Their offense is flatout bad. DJ U is not the QB Clemson fans have become used to, after a Deshaun Watson and Trevor Lawrence era. This team has scored a total of 17 points against FBS competition this year. They averaged 44 a game last year. This is not the same team. NC State has a team full of juniors and seniors. I’m putting Clemson on full-blown upset alert, so I like the fact that I get 10 with the Wolf Pack.
3.ND (+6.5) vs Wisconsin in Chicago- This is a “neutral” site game but I think we all know which side the fine folks of Chicago will be leaning. But honestly, that’s got nothing to do with my pick. This one is simple, that’s just too big a line for how ugly this game is going to be. Give me the underdog against an overrated Wisconsin, with an overrated/under-achieving QB in Graham Mertz.
4.Chargers (+7) @ KC- Love, love, love this one. The Chargers are an excellent team, they went on the road and beat Washington and then they went toe to toe with the Cowboys who played some the best defense I’ve seen them play since the 1990’s. The Chargers got some bad breaks in that game, they should’ve won, calls went the way of Dallas, and now we get LA on a discount. Plus, KC hasn’t covered the spread in 9 straight games when you exclude a week 17 game that didn’t count. Division rivals, shootout feel to it, a touchdown is too much. Chargers +7.
5.Bengals (+3) @ Pittsburgh- I think the Bengals have been very careful in how they are bringing Joe Burrow along, but he looks better with each throw, I like him for a decent game in this one. The Steelers defense is great but without TJ Watt, that’s a huge hole to fill. Let me give you some Vegas lingo to help with this one. 62% of bets placed are on the Steelers but 88% of the money is on the Bengals. That means pro bettors are ALL OVER Cincy, go with the pros.
6.Bucs (-1) @ LAR- Come the end of the year, I think we’ll be looking at the Rams as the best team in the NFC but right now, that doesn’t really mean much. This is still a team that is in search of its new identity with a Matt Stafford at the helm. They looked shaky against the Colts. The Bucs meanwhile are the best thing going in the NFL, they haven’t lost a game since last November, Brady is on fire, I just like the value. I get the best team in the NFL @ -1. I’ll take it.
7.Vikings (+1.5) vs Seattle- Vikes are a sneaky good play here. This is an 0-2 team but if you look deeper, they played back to back road games, and lost by 3 points in each. This is not a bad football team. First game @ Minnesota in front of their loud ravenous fans since 2019. Major home field advantage. Give me the home dawg to get their first win of the season. Vikings +1.5.
8.49ers (-3) vs GB- Rodgers routinely gets boat raced by the 49ers. It’s one of the easier trends to predict in the NFL. That Lions game taught me nothing, give me the Niners all day with the rest of the country backing the Packers on Sunday night.
Photo: Getty Images