More than 20 years ago UCF spent about $40,000 to market its football program to the SEC, ACC, Big East, Conference USA and the Mid-American Conference to try and convince them the Knights would be a great addition to their league. Back then, UCF was an independent and knew they needed a conference to help with scheduling and providing access to bowl games and greater exposure. The vision then was to not view UCF as it was then but to see the big picture of what would be: a fast growing enrollment and a program in the middle of a recruiting hotbed with unlimited potential. Oh what could have been.
Only one conference bothered to even respond to the pitch, the MAC. In 2001, Conference USA tabled expansion plans and that decision triggered Marshall to recommit to the MAC. That opened the door for an invitation to UCF to join the league in football only. The Knights joined the league in 2002 and it started a process that has seen UCF become a wanted program when other leagues lost members who were poached to go elsewhere. Are we here again?
In 2005, UCF jumped to Conference USA when the Big East raided that league. In 2011, it was the Big East who invited UCF to join a league that was gutted by the ACC. UCF never played in the Big East because it became the American when the Catholic schools broke away to form their own league and took the name with them.
Now a decade later, the Knights may be once again on a "wanted" list because Oklahoma and Texas may believe their time in the Big XII is coming to end. As the Sooners and Longhorns make decisions about a possible jump to the SEC what is the ripple effect of such a decision and how does it all impact UCF?
In 2016, the Knights and some of their current conference partners danced with the Big XII when the league studied plans to expand from the current makeup of ten teams. But in the end, the conference chose to not add anyone. The reality is the conference didn't expand because Texas and Oklahoma didn't want expansion and the media partners of the league made it clear expansion would not add significant dollars to current members.
I have said for years that many P5 schools have lived off the value of other members in their conference. It's not a shot at Wake Forest, but Clemson is the reason they get a big check. Vanderbilt lays low in the SEC because it adds no value to the billions the leagues make, that value is in the brands of Alabama, Florida, LSU, Georgia and Auburn. We can do this all day. But the Big XII knows Oklahoma and Texas drives the money machine. So what will everyone else in the conference be willing to give up to keep them?
What if Texas and Oklahoma say they want 40% of any new media deal? No more even split but one tilted to the brands that have real value. If league members say no, and Texas and Oklahoma have an option to move, what becomes of the Big XII? What if the Longhorns and Sooners have made their mind up and plan on leaving for the money rich SEC?
If the Big XII is down to eight schools (Texas Tech, Baylor, TCU, Kansas, Kansas State, Iowa State, Oklahoma State and West Virginia) could it stay at that number and what becomes of their media value? Are they any different than the AAC? What if they wanted to add 2-4 teams? Well, here comes the scenario UCF has seen before. The targets would be the Knights, Cincinnati, Memphis and Houston from the AAC. Perhaps they look at a couple of teams from the Mountain West (Boise State, San Diego State, Colorado State) and revisit the BYU angle.
UCF is looking at around $7M a year in media money while playing in the AAC, which just started a new deal with ESPN. That figure is much better than previous deals for UCF but well short of the lowest P5 payout. Would a move to the Big XII be worth more? Likely, but how much more without Texas and Oklahoma? Big XII teams currently make somewhere between $35-45M per year. That would drop significantly without the two powers.
Let's say a new 12-team Big XII pays a projected $10-12M a year. That's better than what UCF gets now but that figure would frighten current members who would scramble to find new homes in other P5 leagues. But would they find takers? I am not sure. It's funny how you look standing next to big brands holding hands as one and suddenly realize what your real value is when those big brands are no longer next to you.
A move to the Big XII may lead to an increase in media money but comes with some challenges. Your travel costs skyrocket for your teams. Ask West Virginia what life has been like when it comes to sending non-revenue sports across the country for conference games and matches. Those trips add up and your increased media money does shrink. One travel advantage in the AAC is that many members play in big cities with accessible airports that allow for non-stop commercial travel.
But would a Big XII with that remaining eight and new additions be a better football league than the current makeup of the AAC? Yes, it would be a better league from top-to-bottom and more attractive to fans but it also becomes a much more challenging league to compete for a title. I believe UCF and any other program that commits resources to football that come from areas who can recruit would eventually become contenders in any league after a few years with the same financial opportunities. But would the path to a playoff berth become tougher in the Big XII compared to the AAC? Perhaps. Would UCF fans prefer contending each year in the AAC for a title and playoff spot or be more excited about regular season conference opponents but a tougher challenger to win that league? Maybe you can have both.
There is no reason to think UCF could not compete - as would Cincinnati, Memphis and other top G5 programs - in any league because where those programs are regarding recruiting, facilities, school commitment and fan support.
What if a decision by Oklahoma and Texas to leave the Big XII finds members of the remaining eight racing elsewhere and it opens the door for Mike Aresco and AAC to expand its current group of 11. The Mountain West would do the same and it's possible Oklahoma State might have to decide if it wanted to be a conference rival of Tulsa instead of Oklahoma.
So much remains unknown and it's possible nothing will change. Maybe the Big XII satisfies any demands Texas and Oklahoma make and no one moves anywhere. But if those two want to jump and SEC opens its arms, UCF may find itself in a position it has been in before- being wanted by another league likely worth more money than you currently are making but not one of the biggest leagues in revenue and weighing whether a playoff path is easier and more beneficial than choosing a more lucrative option that might be tougher on the field.
And think about this one - what if the Big XII goes looking for teams and sees UCF as an attractive candidate because of its recent success and a school 70 miles to the west says "we would be great to partner and showcase the strength of our two markets and what we offer". The irony considering someone did what they could to block UCF from a football-only membership in the Big East years ago.
A reminder worth noting is that getting out of a league costs money and in most cases lots of money. The AAC has a new media deal in place and commitments from members to pledge loyalty for years. There are buyouts and other financial ramifications that come into play. And while lawyers are good at finding gray areas in legal documents and settlements are options, it's not as easy as many think.
Twenty years ago, UCF joined its first conference and now two decades later it may face another conference decision and while much has changed over those two decades it still comes down to money, access and exposure. The 2021 college football season is fast approaching and so is a possible decision about who you want to hang out with in the coming years.
Final thought: Americans consume about 50 billion hamburgers a year.