So itโs 20 days until the NFL Draftand I woke up today feeling a little depressed.
A little depressed in the thought that we kind of already know who the top 6 picks will be. I mean, whatโs the point of the chatter, the debate, the thought put behind mock drafts and big boards if we already know the top 1/3rd of the draft?!
1.Lawrence, 2. Wilson, 3. Jones, 4. Someone trades up for Fields, 5. Penei Sewell, 6. JaโMar Chase or Kyle Pitts the big mysteryโฆ
But truthfullyโฆas I sat back and pondered this inevitabilityโฆI realizedโฆits not quite as obvious as weโre making it out to be.
1, 2, and 3 sure. If you believe Jones is going to the 49ersโฆand Iโm still bullish on that being the wrong move and flatout bad idea. Butโฆif thatโs what you believe. You can create plenty of mysteries after that. Falcons likely moving out of that spot- but who moves up? Is it the Broncos @ 9, the Lions @ 7, Pats @ 15? Maybe a surprise team like Washington @ 19 or Chicago @ 20.
Then you get to the Bengals. And this is where my mind has really shiftedโฆoriginally I felt it would be criminal for the bengals not to draft Sewellโฆbut the truth is, their o-line is so bad, they arenโt fixing it with one guy. An argument could be made that drafting an elite WR would buy Burrow just as much time as a solid LT.
6. We still donโt know who the Phins prefer between Chase, Pitts, and the Bama guys.
Letโs also not rule outโฆthere could be 5 QBโs that get drafted in the top 5.
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Back to the Jones thingโฆallow me to explain a simple theory I have in life: Never compare an unknown to the best possible outcome.
Meaning: You canโt look at a slice of pizza and go: That looks like the best pizza Iโve ever had, so itโs probably going to taste like the best pizza Iโve ever had.
Similarly, you canโt look at mac jones and say โhe plays like bradyโ and assume heโs going to be brady. 9x out of 10 youโll be wrong.
photo: getty images