Every week, I give you my top picks of the week, nay,my locks of the week. Take it to the bank! Let’s go with my stone cold locks!
Let’s review how I did last week…an even 2-2 for the 2nd straight week I believe,
On the year: 22-24
This is the week I turn things around, this is the week I go picture perfect, even-steven isn’t going to cut it anymore, I want winners! I demand excellence! You demand excellence, and here we go.
1.Chiefs (-7.5) @ Miami
a.This one hurts, this one is painful. I hope that I’m wrong. But I don’t think I will be. Miami has been really good lately, but they rely so heavily on their defense pitching shutouts, and they can’t pitch a shutout against the Chiefs. Plus, I went back and looked at the Chiefs margin of victory this year and it tells an interesting story. Even though they’ve won 11 games and 7 straight….their last 4 wins have been by 2, 4, 3, and 6. You're probably thinking…well, duh…take the Phins, dummy. Even with that, their average margin of victory this year is still 11. Miami can keep it close for 3 quarters, but at some point, the Chiefs are going to pour it on. Take the Chiefs -7.5 in the nice warm weather of Miami.
2.Vikings (+6.5) @ TB
a.I had to ask myself here, do you I trust Tom Brady off a bye…the answer, yes. Do I also trust Bruce Arians off a bye…the answer, no. So those two cancel out. Now let’s look @ what these teams are right now, because one is really good, and the other is really not. The Vikings have won 5 of their last 6, they have the leagues best RB right now, the offensive rookie of the year in Justin Jefferson, and they’re playing against a team WITH NO IDENTITY. I think TB wins, but I really think Minnesota covers. Take the points.
3.Jags (+7.5) vs Titans
a.What, huh?! Gross right? I know. I actually like the Titans quite a bit and they have a pretty rich history of rolling through the Jags with general ease. However, this ain’t your momma’s Jags! Ok…maybe they are, but they’ve actually been halfway good for the leagues 2nd worst team. Last 2 games, 3 point loss to the Vikings, 2 point loss to the Brownies. Mike Glennon is playing well enough to keep this game close, the Jags can run…it’s ugly, but I’ll take the Jags + the points.
4.Giants (+3) vs Cardinals
a.Do my eyes deceive me?! Christmas has come early in Vegas, because this is free money. Who’s trying to play the Giants right now?! They’ve won 4 straight games, just beat the Seahawks with a back up, and Daniel Jones is on the mend. Even if he’s not…They’re running well, they’ve got weapons on offense like Evan Engram, and their defense has held their last 4 opponents to an average of 16.5. What I like even better than their win streak is this little nugget…while they’ve won 4 in a row…they’ve also gone 8 straight games with either A) A win or B) A loss of 3-points or less. This is the gimmie game of the weekend. Like taking candy from a baby. Giants +3.
photo: getty images