Dan Wolken from USA Today laments the fact that every year we over-hype NBA Draft prospects, and most every year, they disappoint us. The numbers back it up.
Courtesy of USA Today:
Over a 25-year period from 1990 to 2014, 80 percent of the players drafted No. 1, 2 and 3 have averaged at least 10 points in the NBA. From picks 4-7, it drops to 61 percent. From picks 8-11, you’re down to less than a coin flip chance (42 percent) of finding a double-figure scorer. And then from picks 12-15, it dips all the way to 29 percent.
Again, that’s just one metric, and there are certainly a number of valuable defensive players and bench guys who average fewer than 10 points. But as a baseline for judging the eventual impact of lottery picks, it’s pretty clear: Despite all the hype and analysis built into Thursday night, we’re basically throwing darts after the top three. - Dan Wolken
Well, the Magic pick 6th, and the numbers are not kind to them to find the next NBA star.
Listen to Dan explain his article below.