Jags +2 @ Tennessee  

• Take the points, take the defense. Call me a sucker, but I’m buying the defense in Jacksonville. They got to Savage 10 times last week, that won’t happen to Mariota, but he looked sloppy against a Raiders defense. Take the points. (public not yet buying in, 70% of the bets are being laid on the Titans -2)  

Broncos +3 (home vs Cowboys)  

• 75% of the betting public likes the Cowboys, but the betting public is filled with lemmings. The Broncos have one of the best home field advantages in all of football and a defense good enough to slow down Zeke, and fluster Dak. Last year, the Broncos only losses at home came against the Falcons, Patriots, and Chiefs. Two of those teams were in the super bowl and the other is a division rival, and it took OT to beat em. When the Cowboys went on the road last year and played elite defenses (Giants/Vikings), they lost one and won the other by only 2 points. Trend points to the Broncos.   

Patriots -6 @ New Orleans  

• I scoured the internet to find the stats on Brady and Belichick after a loss, couldn’t find em, but use common sense here after years of watching these two operate. They rarely lose 2 in a row, they never start 0-2, so if you’re going to take a side, lean on the side of the trend. I’m not buying that after one bad game that Brady is washed up garbage, he’s going to play great, and the Saints have no one that can stop Gronk.  

Lions +3 @ Giants MNF 

• This is easy, one team has life, the other feels like a fish flopping around out of water. The Giants are so one-dimensional on offense, if the Lions are able to put up points, there’s no way the Giants keep up.  

Bears +7 @ Bucs  

• This has to be my favorite bet of the day, I’ve been slow to jump fully on board the Bucs bandwagon. Clearly Vegas and the public have not…7 point favorites, are you kidding? The Falcons were only 6 point favorites last week going in against Chicago, and I thought the Bears handled themselves like a real NFL team. The Bears can run, and they’ve got pass rushers, those things travel really well. No Doug Martin in game one, so running won’t come as easy for TB. I’m not buying the hype just yet.  

Steelers -5.5 vs Vikings  

• You know it’s a cold day in hell when the public isn’t backing the steelers, one of their favorite bets week-to-week. Now you have to ask yourself: why is that? Let’s take a close look at the perception of this game and why it skews toward Viking support. The steelers played a mid-day game, among several other NFL games, they had a hard time putting the browns away, and Leveon Bell was slow coming out of the gate. On the flip side, you had a Vikings team in front of their electric crowd and their brand new beautiful stadium, on Monday night football. Prime time, with the football world solely focused on their beat-down of the saints. Now let’s circle back, where do you think the bias lies? With the team that was front and center on Monday night. What is missing from this equation is the Saints horrendous defense, and the fact that Deshone Kizer played pretty well in the Browns opener. Not only will the Steelers win, they’ll dominate, one of the more over valued teams in the NFL.