A bounce back is coming, I can feel it in my bones. Been charting through some rough seas as of late, but we haven’t capsized yet. I think I’m rocking with 3 straight weeks where I’m one game under .500 in each. Not ideal. But this is where things begin to turnaround.
On the season: 32-30-4, that’s good enough for 53% against the spread. Goal is 60%, gonna need some monster weeks to get there, let’s hit it!
(all of these line generated by the Hard Rock Sportsbook @ 12pm today)
Iowa -2.5 vs Illinois- Everyone is going to look at this game and target the under…if they look at this game at all. Iowa unders don’t just cash with regularity, they cash with a touch of humor with how low scoring these games are. Their unders are 4-0 in their last 4 and the highest point total reached was 22. The O/U is 32, if you wanna take the under, I get it. But, I think this is an Iowa play. Part of the reason these totals are so low is because their defense is lights out. You can’t run on them and you can’t throw on them, 3rd ranked secondary in the country. Illinois has a bad defense, they rank in the 100’s so that’s why I lean away from the total but you can’t win if you can’t score and Iowa should be able to win this one easily. Iowa -3, lock it up!
Oregon State -1.5 vs Washington- Its bound to happen eventually. One of these top 5 teams is going to come crashing down and this sets up to be that game. The fact that Oregon State is favored against a legit CFB Playoff contender/Heisman candidate should tell you everything you need to know. So not only is this the sharp side, there’s also some football logic behind it. Oregon State’s offensive line is one of the best in the country and Washington’s defense can be run on. Oregon State has a big time college QB in DJ U, so the moment won’t shrink him, and the Beavers home stadium is a house of horrors. Oregon State last 3 seasons, 17-1 ATS at home. Beavers -1.5, lock it up!
Texans -5.5 vs Cardinals- I think what we’re seeing here with CJ Stroud is very real. This team looks like a legitimate playoff team and CJ Stroud is in an absolute zone right now. I think people are going to want to back Kyler and the Cards here, big number, they won last week. But I’m just not that impressed with a win over the Falcons. This is still a really bad Cardinals team, their defense is going to shredded here. Texans win and cover, lock it up!
Bears +7.5 @ Lions- We saw this number open @ +10, when a line gets beaten down by a couple points like this, its usually an indicator that some really smart money came in on Chicago. Not the sole reason you should bet a side, but if you like a side, its an indication you’re likely on the right one. Chicago’s defense has gotten better, love the addition of Montez Sweat, Justin Fields should be able to keep them in it offensively. Lions secondary pretty beat up. Divisional underdog catching more than a touchdown, you’re gonna win more of those than you lose…Chicago feels like the right side here, lock it up!
Dolphins -13.5 vs Raiders- Come on. This is what the Dolphins do. At home against inferior competition, the Dolphins are winning by an average of 25ppg. The Raiders have won 2 straight games, they’re feeling themselves, but look at the competition. Beating up on Tommy DeVito and narrowly escaping a win over Zach Wilson isn’t exactly a resume builder. Plus, the Dolphins are getting healthy on both sides of the ball. Blow out city, Phins cover, lock it up!
Steelers +1.5 @ Cleveland- I get another road underdog in a divisional game. Lucky me. Who is that starting @ QB for the Browns again? Dorian Thompson Robinson. The guy who couldn’t complete passes the last time he was asked to start…got it. The only reason the Browns are still favored is because they’re at home, their defense is elite, and no one believes in the Steelers. I get it, Pittsburgh has been the luckiest team in the NFL this year. Injuries, penalties, turnovers – everything has gone their way. And this one is too, Mike Tomlin’s record vs rookie QB’s…25-5. Mike Tomlin as an underdog in an AFC North game…23-8. Steelers +1.5, lock it up.
Rams -0.5 vs Seahawks- Matt Stafford is back. Love that. He’s going up against a defense that just got shredded by Sam Howell. The Rams (and Stafford) have already shredded this defense once this year. Week 1, when Puka Nacua became a household name…and that was without Cooper Kupp. For whatever reason, Sean McVay’s offense has always gotten the better of Pete Carroll’s defense. McVay is 10-4 ATS when playing Seattle. I’m on the Rams, lock it up!
Chiefs -2.5 vs Eagles- A rare MNF play. But this one is too good to pass up. And I am not making the same mistake I made in the Super Bowl. Kansas City wasn’t even the better team the last time these 2 teams played, Kansas City didn’t have a healthy QB the last time these 2 teams played, and they were in a neutral site the last time these 2 teams played. Now they’re in Arrowhead, Mahomes is healthy, and I think the Eagles are going to be a little too amped up for this one. They’ll press, Jalen will make mistakes, and Mahomes will rise to the occasion like he always does in this position. And, if you need a trend to make it feel safe and warm…Andy Reid off a bye, a classic, 56% ATS in his career as a head coach. Chiefs -2.5, lock it up!