The culmination of a week’s worth of work lands us right here, right now. Stone Cold Locks of the Week, took a step back last week with a 2-4 record. Bound to happen. Not upset about it, but, it does however put the pressure on this week. 2 bad weeks in a row and things can start to snowball. Very curious to see how this one shakes out this weekend. Already starting behind the 8-ball too, with the Packers -3 pick handed out yesterday. 0-1 start, let’s dig ourselves out of the hole!
(44-23-2) on the season.
Navy (+16) @ UCF- At this point I know it looks like I’m just trying to troll. I will remind UCF fans out there, I picked UCF ATS vs Cincy and Memphis. I had Tulane as a lock last week vs the Knights and that didn’t work out, but this week, I have a feeling I’m going to be on the right side of things fading UCF. Navy is 5-0 ATS away from home this year. And why is that? Defense and a run game travel really well, and Navy has both. They are 25th in the nation against the run and they pile up rush yards with their triple option style of football. 11am start, UCF off 3 huge games, with a rivalry game against USF on the horizon, too many factors that lead me to believe this game will be close @ the end. Navy +16, lock it up.
Baylor (+2.5) vs TCU- I’ve been in lock-step with the Big 12 all year and I’ll keep it rolling right here. I was on TCU last week against Texas, 7.5 point dogs was just straight disrespectful, and while they won and covered, I think they showed some vulnerabilities. Their offense had been scorching hot, 43ppg entering last week, and they only put up 17. Their offense came to a screeching halt at a really bad time because now they have to go to Baylor, whose as defensively sound as anyone in the country, and I just don’t see them winning this game. TCU has run through the gauntlet, they’ve been great, but they’re hitting a wall and now go on the road for the 2nd straight week against a team that loves playing spoiler. Give me the Baylor Bears +2.5. Lock it up.
UCLA (+2) vs USC- I’m just simply fading public perception here. The general thought here is that USC is back, they have a good QB, a great coach, and they’re the bigger football brand. But, that also means the line is unevenly skewed in their direction, and I will take advantage. UCLA actually has the better QB in this matchup, Dorian Thompson-Robinson has played like a Heisman candidate and their coach Chip Kelly is a cover machine, Chip is 9-0-1 as an underdog of 3pts or less since he joined UCLA. Give me the Bruins in a close, high scoring affair. Lock it up!
Patriots (-3) vs Jets- Let’s do the math on this one. So New England went into New Jersey a couple weeks back, 3 point favorites, and beat the Jets 22-17. Then, the Jets welcomed in Buffalo and won. Both teams get a bye and now the Patriots are at home against the Jets and the number is still 3. The Pats are the better team, they’re at home, Belichick off a bye, and he historically owns the Jets. New England is 13-0 against the Jets in their last 3 games and they’ve failed to cover the spread ZERO times. Pats -3, lock it up.
Eagles (-6.5) @ Colts- I could be totally stepping in it here but I’m going to count on a strong bounce back from an Eagles team that is much better than what they displayed on Monday Night Football. I am concerned about the production of Jonathan Taylor, the loss of Jordan Davis for the Eagles d-line, I get all of that. But, if they are able to bottle him up, even a little, the Colts have no chance to keep this close. One of the matchups I’m watching for- AJ Brown vs Colts DB’s. The Colts rank 29th in the league against opposing #1 receivers, if he gets going, we’ll cover this with ease. Fly Eagles Fly, lock it up.
Cowboys (-1.5) @ Minnesota- Game of the week. This one is really interesting. I’ll back the team coming off a loss, a little added motivation there. I’ll fade the Vikings who just played one of the most emotional/hard-fought games of the year in Buffalo. I wish the game was in Dallas but I also don’t need to worry about Cousins @ 1pm where he is lethal. That 4:25 kick is essentially a prime-time spot, and Cousins folds in those situations. Add to that, the Vikings are dealing with o-line injuries and that’s not a good thing when you have to stop Micah Parsons off the edge. I’ll take Dallas -1.5 here, lock it up.
Picks I like- Bengals -4, Texans +3, Lions +3, Ravens -13, Oregon +2, Maryland +27.5, Illinois +17.5