My Stone-Cold Locks are back – year 2 – and yeah, I keep track, because this is about confidence, it’s about transparency – last season a clean 37-37 after a rocking start to the season. My locks almost turned into suggestions, but like rocky balboa, I just kept fighting, and I’m feeling goooood this year.
Someone throw away the keys – it’s time to lock it up!
1.Jags (-3) @ Texans- ’ll start with my first love this weekend – and by that I mean, this is the first number that jumped out at me. The Jags are only 3 point favorites @ Houston. The Texans are filled with turmoil, their roster is awful, and Trevor Lawrence is the new GAWD OF DUVAL. Urban Meyer always starts hot wherever he goes, I think this game is a run away for Jacksonville. Plus, rookie QB’s have a phenomenal record ATS over the years- the market doesn’t know how to adjust for Trevor yet, and I am pleased to take Jax -3. LOCK IT UP!
2.Kansas @ Coastal (-26.5)- How about a little love for a game being played tonight?! The often overlooked and forgotten about Coastal Carolina Chantacliers taking on UCF’s new rival – Kansas. This a 26.5 point spread BUT Coastal has the fire power to cover. They have one of the best QB’s in the nation with Grayson McCall and Kansas looks a bit overvalued coming in 1-0…but, their undefeated record is misleading because they only beat South Dakota by 3…and put up a lowly 17 points in the process. Coastal smashes tonight! LOCK IT UP!
3.Seahawks @ Colts (+3)- This is a sneaky good game in that 1 o’clock window and I think it’s going to be one of the more exciting games of the day. So, of course, the betting public is ALL OVER SEATTLE in this one. 72% of bets coming in on Russell Wilson…but….looking @ this as a matchup of QB’s is the wrong way to go. Obviously Russ is better than Wentz. But the Colts have the better defense, the better pass rush, the better o-line, the better run game, and they’re at home. And the Colts are DAWGS. Colts +3 LOCK IT UP!
4.Dolphins (+3) @ Patriots- I tried to convince myself not to do this but I just can’t help it. It’s too appealing. The Dolphins are just better. Their QB is better, their defense should be better, their receivers are better, I’ll give NE the home field advantage and the coach lean but its not enough. Mac Jones has to complete passes to stiff WR’s who are trying to separate from elite DB’s. Bad mix. Also- Brian Flores is 20-8 against the spread in his last 28 games as head coach of the Phins. Dolphins +3 LOCK IT UP!
5.Iowa (+4.5) @ Iowa State- This one’s got the hype and the pagentry and headlines an otherwise awful weekend of CFB matchups, but, I’ve got a side that I can not stay away from. Iowa is getting 4.5 in this one. What?! Iowa State is the same team that just put up 16 points against Northern Iowa and now they face one of the nation’s best defensive teams. Iowa is good and as good as Iowa State has been under HC Matt Campbell, one thing he’s never done, is beaten Iowa. So I get Iowa with momentum and 4.5 points. All day. LOCK IT UP! Better yet…MASTER LOCK IT!
6.Steelers (+6.5) @ Bills- Gut play.This is a bonus, late add for me, just feels like a Pittsburgh bargain. 2 really good teams, Pittsburgh can get after the QB and they’ll try and slow the game down with Najee Harris.