The Tampa Bay Lightning (39-20-4) square off against the Detroit Red Wings (36-22-7) at Benchmark International Arena on Thursday, March 12 at 7 p.m. ET on ESPN+. The Lightning were defeated by the Columbus Blue Jackets 5-2 in their most recent outing, while the Red Wings are coming off a 4-3 loss to the Florida Panthers.

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Here's our prediction for who will claim the win in Thursday's matchup.

The Red Wings have a 4-5-1 record in their past 10 games. They have totaled 21 goals while giving up 26 in that period. On the power play, 28 opportunities have resulted in four goals (14.3% success rate).

Lightning vs. Red Wings Predictions for Thursday

Our computer projection model for this contest expects a final score of Lightning 4, Red Wings 2.

Moneyline Pick: Lightning (-223)
Total Pick: Under 6.5 (computer predicts 6.2 goals on average)
Spread Pick: Lightning (-1.5)

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Lightning Splits and Trends

The Lightning have a 39-20-4 record overall, with a 9-4-13 record in contests that have needed overtime.
In the 19 games Tampa Bay has played that were decided by one goal, it has an 8-9-2 record (good for 18 points).
Looking at the seven times this season the Lightning finished a game with just one goal, they have a 2-4-1 record, good for five points.
Tampa Bay has taken 11 points from the 14 games this season when it scored two goals (4-7-3 record).
The Lightning have scored more than two goals 40 times, and are 33-7-0 in those games (to record 66 points).
In the 22 games when Tampa Bay has recorded a single power-play goal, it has a 13-7-2 record (28 points).
In the 34 games this season in which it has outshot its opponent, Tampa Bay is 20-11-3 (43 points).
The Lightning have been outshot by opponents in 28 games, going 18-9-1 to record 37 points.

Red Wings Splits and Trends

The Red Wings have a 11-7-18 record in overtime games this season and a 36-22-7 overall record.
Detroit has earned 36 points (16-3-4) in its 23 games that finished with a one-goal margin.
This season the Red Wings registered only one goal in nine games and they lost every time.
Detroit has 15 points (7-5-1) when scoring a pair of goals this season.
The Red Wings have scored three or more goals in 39 games, earning 64 points from those contests.
This season, Detroit has capitalized on a lone power-play goal in 28 games and picked up 38 points with a record of 18-8-2.
When outshooting its opponent this season, Detroit is 18-12-4 (40 points).
The Red Wings have been outshot by opponents 29 times this season, and earned 39 points in those games.

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